Hey mate - This is going to be a very difficult exercise haha
For simplicity, I would use the references from ZIP's recent annual report (page 12) specifically, as well as the CAGR predictions from IBISWorld - see my references below.
" The total addressable retail market as it stands now is 22 trillion dollars with a current BNPL penetration of 1.6%. Ibisworld prdicts that the BNPL industry will continue to grow at 9.8% annual over the next 5 years."
If in 5 years from now, BNPL penetration will be 10% (for example), we can assume that ZIP's revenue will decrease by 10/1.6 = 6.25 times of what it is now - this figure will assume that all other BNPL businesses are also capturing equal market share.
ZIPs reported revnue of 1billion now because 6.25billion.
Let me know what you think.
Chart - Z1P, page-10604
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Last
$1.26 |
Change
0.010(0.80%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.378B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $1.21 | $1.27 | $1.20 | $8.440M | 6.817M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1600 | $1.25 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $1.26 | 44646 | 4 |
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| Last trade - 16.10pm 01/05/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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Last
$1.26 |
Change
0.010 ( 1.75 %) |
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| Open | High | Low | Volume | ||
| $1.20 | $1.26 | $1.20 | 7415948 | ||
| Last updated 15.59pm 01/05/2024 ? | |||||
| ZIP (ASX) Chart |