Hey mate - This is going to be a very difficult exercise haha
For simplicity, I would use the references from ZIP's recent annual report (page 12) specifically, as well as the CAGR predictions from IBISWorld - see my references below.
" The total addressable retail market as it stands now is 22 trillion dollars with a current BNPL penetration of 1.6%. Ibisworld prdicts that the BNPL industry will continue to grow at 9.8% annual over the next 5 years."
If in 5 years from now, BNPL penetration will be 10% (for example), we can assume that ZIP's revenue will decrease by 10/1.6 = 6.25 times of what it is now - this figure will assume that all other BNPL businesses are also capturing equal market share.
ZIPs reported revnue of 1billion now because 6.25billion.
Let me know what you think.
Chart - Z1P, page-10604
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