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Hey mate - This is going to be a very difficult exercise hahaFor...

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    Hey mate - This is going to be a very difficult exercise haha

    For simplicity, I would use the references from ZIP's recent annual report (page 12) specifically, as well as the CAGR predictions from IBISWorld - see my references below.

    " The total addressable retail market as it stands now is 22 trillion dollars with a current BNPL penetration of 1.6%. Ibisworld prdicts that the BNPL industry will continue to grow at 9.8% annual over the next 5 years."

    If in 5 years from now, BNPL penetration will be 10% (for example), we can assume that ZIP's revenue will decrease by 10/1.6 = 6.25 times of what it is now - this figure will assume that all other BNPL businesses are also capturing equal market share.

    ZIPs reported revnue of 1billion now because 6.25billion.

    Let me know what you think.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/3260/3260725-447a3ef686e59cb5a942ebb32ca556a2.jpg

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/3260/3260727-6153e1642ab47d31442c490bdf31c63e.jpg


 
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