Hey mate - This is going to be a very difficult exercise haha
For simplicity, I would use the references from ZIP's recent annual report (page 12) specifically, as well as the CAGR predictions from IBISWorld - see my references below.
" The total addressable retail market as it stands now is 22 trillion dollars with a current BNPL penetration of 1.6%. Ibisworld prdicts that the BNPL industry will continue to grow at 9.8% annual over the next 5 years."
If in 5 years from now, BNPL penetration will be 10% (for example), we can assume that ZIP's revenue will decrease by 10/1.6 = 6.25 times of what it is now - this figure will assume that all other BNPL businesses are also capturing equal market share.
ZIPs reported revnue of 1billion now because 6.25billion.
Let me know what you think.
Hey mate - This is going to be a very difficult exercise hahaFor...
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