chart

Before reading any further you should all note this is the first chart I've made that I actually feel is correct. I only heard about charting a couple months ago, and haven't had much time to absorb it all, but I do watch Robbbbbbb's weekend videos which are great by the way.

We seem to be in the 4th Elliott Wave, which is corrective. 38.2% Fib retracement from wave 3 is 1.05, so it should hold above this level.

Wave 5 is typically similar to wave 1, so using legit TA methods (counting fingerwidths on my computer screen) if the upturn was to start now I have a target of $1.50.

Bollingers have tightened up, signalling a strong move, either up or down, given the flag/wedge and the Elliott Wave analysis I am concluding up.

Wave 1: Wave one is rarely obvious at its inception. When the first wave of a new bull market begins, the fundamental news is almost universally negative. The previous trend is considered still strongly in force. Fundamental analysts continue to revise their earnings estimates lower; the economy probably does not look strong. Sentiment surveys are decidedly bearish, put options are in vogue, and implied volatility in the options market is high. Volume might increase a bit as prices rise, but not by enough to alert many technical analysts.

Wave 2: Wave two corrects wave one, but can never extend beyond the starting point of wave one. Typically, the news is still bad. As prices retest the prior low, bearish sentiment quickly builds, and "the crowd" haughtily reminds all that the bear market is still deeply ensconced. Still, some positive signs appear for those who are looking: volume should be lower during wave two than during wave one, prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% (see Fibonacci section below) of the wave one gains, and prices should fall in a three wave pattern.

Wave 3: Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest). The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to "get in on a pullback" will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1.

Wave 4: Wave four is typically clearly corrective. Prices may meander sideways for an extended period, and wave four typically retraces less than 38.2% of wave three. Volume is well below than that of wave three. This is a good place to buy a pull back if you understand the potential ahead for wave 5. Still, the most distinguishing feature of fourth waves is that they often prove very difficult to count.

Wave 5: Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high, the indicator does not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how forecasts for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received).

Not that this matters, as I am not a pro investor, but based on what I see I will take a fair bit off the table when it approaches 1.50. As we know, stocks don't play by the book, so none of this is guaranteed, it may continue past 1.50, it may peak at 1.40, it may sideways back to $1 (fundamentally I think the rise to 1.50 is the most appropriate).

If you base investment decisions on what I have typed you are nuts, as I am not a financial advisor, I am not yet degree qualified, and have very little charting experience. Please DYOR before investing. If you are unable to DYOR, take the above post as voodoo.