chart, page-134

Hi jay, keeping it basic we earn 8.6 mill from 60,000 tpa plant where we have 60% stake = we are getting a return on 36,000 tpa for that. On a conservative p/e of 15 gives me a value of 129 mill or $1 per share.

The SSc deal was looking at 90,000 tpa but with the centralized processing facility talk I'd say 150,000 tpa min to have a crack at some of the landfill across Tennesee. That is 150,000/36,000 = roughly 4 times the exposure with similiar profit levels to here we are talking 4x8.6mil = 34 mill less 5% royalty = say 32mill p.a. On same P/e thats 32x15= 490 odd Mill or $3 per share.

Lets say we pay to build alone = 50mill capex, we will likely get 10mill in grants or concessions, borrow 20 mill and raise 20 mill but even if we raise it at $1 (won't happen) thats only another 20mill shares = 153mill total with MC of 519mill minus 20mill debt= 499mill MC/153mill shares = $3.26. Thats pretty base case imo and then add your other stuff -Silica/Gold = 20c min doing nothing but watching them and $3.50 for what we have on the go seems fair.

Alcoa? - impossible to judge yet as the 400,000 tpa bandied about is US alone and the deal is likely to be wider. The numbers just get silly so lets leave that out for the discussion when we are at $3 so I don't sound like a loony. With the US producing 1000000 tpa and all that landfill everywhere I would think we would be chasing that sort of throughput in the Us to keep up let alone help landfill issues.

So for Geelong and SSC I want $3 and eventually the market will pay it, although by the time we are building the SSC plant ,the Alcoa deals will be starting up so I think the market will just chase this at a rate it can afford to accumulate.