Qed, I refer you to a post I made last night on the latest possible reason for the sharp sell-off. It seems to make the most sense.
Here it is again, and this is from info on Tuesday afternoon.
I got that Argonaut research tonight as well from a source so I'm guessing it’s only just become available to most of us.
It has a target of 3.99 which may possibly have triggered the selling as it was close enough.
However a separate possible reason for the selling is this;
A broker I know told me that an insto decided to get out (may also be related to reason above or possibly a result of a redemption from fund caused them to sell).
A few other goldies got hit at the same time so this theory seems plausible.
SAR dropped sharply from the open yesterday as well although didn't drop as much as us today after bouncing off low. That could simply be because the fund was not holding as many SAR and finished selling earlier today allowing a rebound. Whether or not they were also holding SAR is just a theory of mine based on the similar moves.
The broker also told me that management is trying to track down the seller to organize a crossing. They may have found the insto already.
If this is what's going on then we may see some crossings tomorrow.
If we see that, it should be a good buy signal.
Interestingly Argonaut has a NPAT for 2012/2013 at 109mill.
I have it a little lower at 101mill which still gives me a prospective PE of just 6.8 on next years earnings.
At $4 the ratio is 8.8. Still seems to low for a gold company with no debt and very strong growth in earnings for the following year as well.
I would think a PE in the low to mid teens is reasonable for a proven producer with an excellent track record.
I don't see any justification for this much of a sell-off.
I expect a sharp rebound.
I was expecting a multi week gradual correction.
It seems to me it's going to get the whole correction done in just 2-3 days. At this rate I can't see it lasting more than 1 more day-if at all.
The prospective PE is already too low and value offered to strong.
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Qed, I refer you to a post I made last night on the latest...
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