chart , page-64

76.5c more or less also aligns with my back of the envelop 61.5% fib retracement levels of 75.5c - taking the 26Sep closing low of .54 vs the closing high of 1.105 on 14Nov.

Today's action is a pretty much expected reaction to the failure of the 85c support and stops kicking in.

Unfortunately I don't see any change in outlook from my post on 19Jan - in the absence of new marginal buyers, new marginal sellers from early conversion of MHMO's are likely to continue to pressure the MHM shareprice.

Fairly rational behaviour IMO - anyone buying MHMO's in the Sep/Oct lows would have been up more than 100% for a few short weeks work, when the options climed back to 90 odd cents. Chances are if they were holding positions in MHM before, than any such purchasers would have been massively overweight in MHM when the s/price was topping out at 1.105 and they were buying at the Sep/Oct lows.

Only thing that is going to change the short term outlook is the arrival of new marginal buyers - as comments here suggest most posters here are starting to get tapped out, so for this reason alone I agree with Toll that if there is any financing required for completion of the US works than I would like to see it raised through an offmarket allocation to a insto or investment fund.

Whether new marginal buyers will come from the Broker presso remains to be seen (not encouraging thus far). A US roadshow could deliver some more interest into MHM, but more likely it won't be until the improvements in Geelongs production and processing starts showing up in the financials.

As pleased as I was that MHM was capable of immediately expensing the Geelong plant works through the PnL, the downside is the average analyst isn't going to be bothered to pick apart the financials for such a small Co to see the improvement in earnings, hidden within the cashflows, they're simply going to look at the headline numbers and put it aside until they improve.

In the meantime there doesn't appear to be much else we can do but grin and bare it until the cavalry (new buyers) arrive.