Canggu, I should apologise, clearly my original post could have...

Canggu,

I should apologise, clearly my original post could have been framed a little tidier, to suggest that rather than the actual numbers in the research you quoted being simplistic/rubbery, that it would in fact have little, if any, of the expected/proposed effect (i.e. a move UP in the SP) ... allowing for the “bigger picture” I’d mentioned previously. I assume you’ll accept.

Otherwise: (allowing for the tag team I’ll respond in kind)

Your (Canggu) post: dated 2/3:

“POH now clocking highest vol since April last year. The inclusion means 25m shares need to be bought by the Index funds on or before 16th March.
Nice!”

(Price at time of posting: 21c.)

Followed up by your mate: jm2110 on the 2/3

“Good buying KC - not sure we will see 20c again. I expect we will see the ~8m on the bid side today slowly step up and although good size today we are starting to see the seller weaken.......coupled with the index boys doing their calculations next week and starting to accumulate into the 19th....the powder is dry and the fuse is set.....c'mon Esra chuck us match with an announcement and see if can all have something to feel smug about before the crazy Mexican resident clown is allowed back on this thread.”

(Price at time of posting: 21c.)

And jm2120 again, in another on the 3/3:

“So we will see pressure from index buyers the closer we get to the 16th and also from speculators anticipating that flow but you are correct in saying that yesterdays buying was genuine and not really related to this news.
Why did we see this buying? Because after the last trial result this investment has been so derisked we all know we should be in the mid 20's by now but this seller has kept us capped....just looking at the chart you can see the pressure building as we wanted to pop thorugh 20 and now we have IMO we wont be stopping at this 21-21.5 level for more than a day....”

(Price at time of posting: 21c)

The clear inference/takeout at the time of the OP, Canggu, I assume going by those posts and your post on Friday 16/3:

“As a JLM to the CR, Bells performance post has been nothing but bucketshop esque. If they were half a broker they would have found a buyer for Orbis's line and we would be at 25/26c minimum. However, they are not, so we are not!” (16/3)

and backed up by the vastly more informed, than me, jm2010, for the vast majority of HC pohsters would have been that the sp would move substantially UP? with the increase in volume.

Not the intention of the OP?

..And the SP today ?

22C. Yep 22c. Pretty much where it was. Much to everybodies frustration.

So why is that? The bigger picture I keep mentioning perhaps?

As I’ve maintained for months: (notwithstanding your (TOU’d) post Canggu, slagging me off (yes I have a copy, crayons and all), announcements, new buying, any likely addition to the 300 etc would all mean little allowing for Simon/Orbis.

But then I guess that’s what jm2010 retrospectively informed us of with his 16/3 post:

“You continue to quote broker flows which at the end of the day, dont really tell us anything apart from net buyers and sellers. Orbis are running the selling in this stock at the moment. The buying continues to come via Asian HNW and insto investors post Esra's roadshow. The rest is day trading action and a few domestic insto's.”

Gee’s, thanks for that jm, only about a month or two after others had pointed out who was selling, how much, where thru etc..

So, again, the bigger picture?

Now I’ve been shown up for a complete fool no doubt you’ll have the answers to all the real questions everyones been asking?

How about these?

Why is Simon selling, something to do with the weighting policies of a particular fund, perhaps even recent policy ch’s wrt to M/cap and Index weightings?

Is it possible being added to an index created a sell/re-weighting trigger for some holders?

Who’s the second seller, and why?

Why did Simon apparently insist on market “drip feed” selling rather than a straight/not so straight crossing (Seag’s lost his pull?), Bells not really “at the party”?

Is there some correlation between the placement stock Q’s and the stock now being distributed to the fundies? (Oh and jm’s million dollar mates)

I guess what I’m saying is:

How about letting us in on the REAL story i.e. not how much stock someone (NOT YOU) has estimated the fundies need to scoop up (yes behind the odd nominee or 3 ) but why more than TWICE AS MUCH STOCK has come out from the biggest Shareholder(s) most of it during the last 8 weeks… During a period that overlaps pefectly any buying by fundies pre-empting a 300 add, on market etc etc

BTW any possibility that Orbis had another reason for selling other than just a re-weighting of their holding? (Noticed anything about any of their other holdings?) No doubt your big US investment house/Asian “mates” will know jm2010?

Speaking of which, Clearly with your oft related “extensive” backgrounding and experience jm2010:

(“as many of the posters (and the purchasers) here have held senior roles with us investment banks and have been around for more that time (there is a reason they are now hnw)....”

And

“Quite honestly you have no idea of the academic and professional qualifications of those you claim to be superior in knowledge and market understanding of and right now after todays performance I know who's analysis on this issue in hindsight held up to market scrutiny and it wasn't your own”

…You’ll have no trouble informing HC why the SP has plateaued over recent months, who the house was that pulled their research, if/why the CO may have held over announcements, why Vol’s were escalating substantially pre-S&P re-weightings etc?

Y’know the bigger picture stuff? Guys?

Still, here I should apologise (again) for the hurt MY posts have caused you.

Then again perhaps it’s your sensitivity to the apparent down ramping (thanks KC) in my posts that sees you so defensive? Rather than anything directly imputed?

(No down-ramping allowed here on POH! Lol or should that be “110% Ramping ONLY”)

Either way, as asked on the 2nd… whats REALLY been going on over the last 12 weeks? And WHY?

Have yet to see ANY real informed suggestions/knowledge? Other than “my million dolar mates are buying…” of course.
In short I guess I could’ve just posted:

Whatever the merits of the quant calc’s, the key outtake is that the SP virtually hasn’t moved irrespective of the 25m buying (+- the 40m from your “mates” or the implication of the OP’s. )

Bigger picture perhaps?

But then who gives a rats about the bigger picture when you can use someone else’s research to estimate volume… but can’t get the PRICE action right?

Me? Price is all that matters.

Happy to be wrong on Vol… Now, would much rather have been wrong on the SP.

At the end of the day, index re-weighting or not the SP as of today is 22c pretty much where it was before the addition to the 300 was announced, but then that “news” wasn’t really new “news” to most anyway was it?
Still always good for a ramp perhaps inferring the SP will have to run based on ALL the buying.

Still as I indicated a couple of months ago there was always more to this game than individual brokers and HC’ posters ramping a stock that others had/were positioning much longer term holdings both up and down.

And as far as your sensitivity to some percieved “superiority” jm can’t quite bring myself to reconcile that with your all over the “bucket” shop posts :

“just looking at the chart you can see the pressure building as we wanted to pop through 20 and now we have IMO we wont be stopping at this 21-21.5 level for more than a day....”

(3/2)

“I would say however that just because we have entered the index and technically it does mean that the managers need to buy 20 odd million shares this doesn't mean this will happen as the costs to the manager of doing so is too great.

What actually happens is the manager will select a basket of stocks they feel accurately represents the index performance (has a high beta) and then buy those in a greater amount to account for all the other shares they have left out of the basket. So if POH was one of the stocks in the basket a particular manager chose then it could mean more buying or the opposite if it was not.”

(3/2)

And
“.....but as I said yesterday just because technically they need to buy 24m shares doesn't mean they will.”

and

“Hi kwaidan....small problem with you telling me about the reality of what is happening....you are just going by what your broker movement reports tell you and I am going by what the guys that are handling over the dollars are telling me... Yes I can't account for the full 95m but I can 100% account for around 40m of it and that will do for me.......by the way don't sell yourself short...if you only are asking for 25yrs experience for you to stand dnwn you aren't doing yourself justice as many of the posters (and the purchasers) here have held senior roles with us investment banks and have been around for more that time (there is a reason they are now hnw”

(BTW JM care to enlighten HC just who ‘s been buying this 40m and from where? A broker name perhaps?)

yet AFTER the fact, you go all godlike in your judgmentalism: 16/2

“.I find it hilarious that the day you chose to come back and start posting on this thread about how bright you are and how others here aren't as knowledgeable as yourself is the same day that we entered the asx300 with 23.4m shares having traded........a number that seems frighteningly close to the number that Canggu quoted JPM's research as saying would need to be bought, and a number that you basically implied was rubbish.
Quite honestly you have no idea of the academic and professional qualifications of those you claim to be superior in knowledge and market understanding of and right now after today’s performance I know who's analysis on this issue in hindsight held up to market scrutiny and it wasn't your own.”


Seems based on your all over the place predictions (will have to, wont have to, did in fact lol) you weren’t any closer to the mark? Then again at least you covered all possibilities lol. Clearly the influence of your “mates” no doubt.

I’ll look for your predictions in the future.

BTW ALL of the 23.4M (almost exactly Canggu’s estimate!!!!) done Friday was Fundie/index driven? LOL.

As for the argument on pricing :

“pre-determined price would be an "arranged sale" and therefore illegal. There is nothing pre-determined about index re-weighting.”

Nothing pre-determined other than the number of shares that ‘HAVE TO BE BOUGHT ON MARKET” or the “DATE THEY MUST BE BOUGHT BY”. Or the Funds that “have” to do the buying. Or the entry price they book, the effect on their capital structure, asset allocation, future fund performance etc etc Lol.

Christ you’d need a research report quoting the quants from one “Top 5 investment banks in the world.” to do all that!

(BTW there is no need for fundies to “have to” buy “on market” these days anyway. Then again why ruin a good ramp with the facts? )


Of course you’re not seriously suggesting than NO-ONE buying/selling or perhaps even crossing from a nominee that had been accumulating will have a price in mind up until the stock matches up on the day at exactly 4.10?

Didn’t see the volume on both sides at 4.10?

But then brokers, fundies etc never “influence” a price do they? That would be “illegal” Lol.

Heaven forbid they start that “illegal activity” on oppies exp.

Still whatever the merits of how many shares the fundies need/needed to buy by whatever date as I indicated on the 4/3 and have maintained for the last few months:

“Not withstanding that the action is promising but we're not out of the woods yet. Bigger forces at play here.”

But then what would I know after all I only have broker stats to go by. I couldn’t possible have any EX US investment house mates/colleagues. Lol Let alone Broking house analyst mates, Co. insiders, Fund colleagues etc etc. or even heaven forbid a line to the Co or other “informed/active” parties.

At the end of the day Orbis have continued doing what I expected i.e. SELLING, the SP is pretty much about where it was (so much for the claims of 30c in days) and ALL holders and non holders have been frustrated by the action.

The index re-weighting has been largely neutered by Simon’s selling, and all POH has provided notwithstanding all this (40m!) buying by JM’s Million Dollar mates is… well a trade.
What can I do other than to bow down before all those years of US investment house experience, knowledge and tact, Clearly these “mates” were aware of and have posted about the bigger picture over the duration and been proved right jm?

As for when it will end?

No doubt your sources will enlighten HC with that info shortly too.

BTW Perhaps these mates .. particularly JM’s Million dollar mates can get together with Esra, Seag’s, ALL his ex clients etc etc and place the overhang… Didn’t happen?
That damn bigger picture.

BTW Why couldn’t these so called million dollar men engineer a crossing of 43m shares @ 19c jm2010? Perhaps a Little too much self-importance attached to this (supposed 40M) buying rather than real importance?

As I said happy to be wrong, if I am so be it.. I’ll bow out.

Later guys…. Then again probably not. Crayons and all.

And no wont bother with editing… this debate’s simply not worth the effort.

TD all you like, SP COB on Friday will still stay 22c.

And I’ll stay a 10 yr+ holder.

Ciao

MY opinion only of course.