chart, page-18

One of HC's most widely followed posters '5shareholder' has made a huge call on BHP. He notes:' I'm very bearish on base metals. BHP and copper alike are forming the final stages of a pretty ugly head and shoulders pattern. I think its very possible over the next 12-18 months that traders will get a look at BHP below $20 with a potential target of roughly $16-$18. NCM's demise has demonstrated that market powerhouses can and will fail given the right conditions. BHPB won't fail as catastrophically as NCM, but as a stock it will struggle.'

I share his pessimism but am not as bearish. I guesstimate BHP will hit $27 over next 12 months but falling AUD and pension funds desparate for ffr divs will stop the rot. But what do i know? Montgomery and others say it will break $20!! I do feel we are facing a tough FY14 and index will be less than close of FY13. I have no intention of buying BHP as macro is too lousy. But BHP has oil unlike many miners.