@Rosayrov lol mate, love your predictions but I certainly...

@Rosayrov lol mate, love your predictions but I certainly wouldn't choose my gear for the day by them!!

Anyway, it will be fascinating to see where the market goes tomorrow.

All dirty laundry aired - clean slate and fresh start

After all taxes paid,
GXY have ~$320m AUD in the bank ($400m pre-tax) and may be able to claw some back.

GXY have 35,000t of spodumene sitting around (costs already incurred so it's all profit when sold say $680/t) = add another $34m AUD

(Management have cleared up reason for delaying shipments - their customer is committed to offtake but is tripling their spod processing capacity and wants to skew shipments to second half - confirmed will take everything we have).

GXY's stake in Lepidico is worth $16mOther financial assets (details unknown) ~$12m (?)

So relatively liquid asset value for GXY is now ~$400m!
No debt.
Access to a $50-60m loan facility with BNP if needed
Market cap ~ $660m

That means Mt.Cattlin as a going concern generating ~ $40m EBITDA p.a. at these reduced spod prices, James Bay, SdV (the lesser half of which recently sold for $400m AUD)...all worth $260m AUD.

Can't wait to see the trading direction.

If it falls further, someone is almost certainly going to make a TO bid for GXY - why partner on SdV when you can buy the whole damn company for $260m when you break down the parts?

And management could throw in say $20m and do a buyback as well now that technically POSCO transaction and SdV and YOP are all less on the agenda.

Shorting at this point would be foolish due to event risk. End game now. Long termers too scared it'll go lower when really it can't go much lower before it becomes an easy short term technical bull-trade. Shorter's too scared to go heavy down at this point as well.

I suspect we'll trade sideways to slightly up, but could be slightly down as well but not significantly.