I'd look to between the 6th and 12th of Feb. I am expecting...

I'd look to between the 6th and 12th of Feb. I am expecting 110'ish, 101'ish or 95'ish depending on the RSI track. To NOT be 90/95 the SP needs to lift a little now as it was falling way too fast to begin with. After today it is a little better but still not ideal so it looks to be tracking the 100 to 110 range (almost). I expected 112 to 114 as the probable base this time but we got there too fast. Interesting thing is that the rebound pattern is very fast for GXY after the 12th with an SP recovery by the 23 Feb and I am expecting that to be 145 to 160 right now between then and the 6 March'ish, which would take us to the top of the double bottom pattern assuming no black swans. No idea what to expect after that at this point except that it should retrace a little as per normal. Lined ponds and shipments would help I think.

Now the thing that is making this tricky to read at the moment is that the shorts are almost topped out on their normal borrowing level, way too early in the pattern. This lot of shorters don't seem to be nearly as smart as the earlier shorters we used to have and seem to be making significant mistakes, but I guess we will see what the whole strategy is over the next few days.