Hi schmunzel,
TCO (total cost of ownership) parity has already been reached in some markets - I have posted previously examples of golf vs e-golf 5-year costs etc (e.g. germany, france) that demonstrate this.
So, you are right, from a direct $$ standpoint.
Purchase price parity, on the other hand, is the main one that is being "watched" closely, as this remains a sticking point for the masses - how much does the car actually cost to buy..? Now, we know that most vehicles are on finance, so in actual fact the TCO is more relevant, however, it is "easier" to compare sticker prices for most punters out there. Easier for car salesmen to move ICE stock too, pointing at the sticker price!
Heck, I spend around $5k per year on fuel, and the equivalent Tesla (performance wise) would be less than a third of that to power. That's over $25k savings in "fuel" costs over 8 years. Not to mention maintenance! Of course, my (performance) case is a bit abnormal, but more typical vehicles can also be compared very easily to illustrate direct $$ benefits even when the EV sticker price is higher.
So, my references to "price parity" are usually in relation to purchase price parity, which many analysts have been brining forward every year or so. Current estimates are 2022 in Europe iirc.
This is mainly due to the ongoing reduction in battery costs, as most of us know. At USD100/kWh, the generally accepted ballpark where price parity can be achieved, the batteries in a 60kWh EV pack "only" cost about USD6000. We are fast approaching that figure. IIRC VW already apparently has some forward contracts that are for that price.
When environmental/fun/feel good factors are considered, this pushes some to make the switch sooner, sure. A great thing.
Disruption experts are clear that mass EV adoption will surge when purchase price parity arrives, and this will undoubtedly cause a wave of demand that is unprecedented.
As far as I can tell, purchase price parity should be a reality in ALL major markets within about 5-6 years from now, at which point there will be a MUCH larger charging infrastructure base, and at which point there will simply be NO reason for MOST people to want a new ICE vehicle over EV. It follows, IMO, that by say 2030, demand for new ICE vehicles will be effectively zero. By then, it will clearly make no financial sense to by one, there will be restrictions on where you can drive one in some places, and the peer pressure to move away from this archaic mode of transport will be immense.
I've urged Colin to go drive a Tesla, just to see what it's all about, yet he simply refuses, preferring to stay uneducated to this unfolding future. It is amazing that one can be so blinkered to what is coming. I urge everyone to take the opportunity, if you haven't already, just to experience the feeling/sound/power/sensation/technology of what will soon be the "new normal". Some here already own them - great stuff.
If I was in the market for a new 3-series bmw or C-class merc (etc), I'd take Tesla Model3 any day.
(like so many ARE doing already!)
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