Everyone needs to take step back and calm down.
Even on the worst of scenarios for Covid19, 97% of people will survive, and more likely it is 99%. There are at least three, maybe 4 antiviral regimes to treat it, and in spite all the 12 month+ vaccine projections there are at least 4 vaccine candidates going into a rapid 3 month to 6 month testing/production cycle - because some or all of their activity is already tested or trialed for either other versions of the SARs virus or other species. If the UQ proposal is adopted they could potentially have a usable production volume for consumers in about 4 months (they have proposed going into production and final trial simultaneously as the tech in the vaccine is known to work on other similar diseases, and human safety trials have already been conducted.
On past patterns and current patterns the peak of the infection wave is about 2 months in and by 3 months it is dropping away, which takes us to around end of April for the wave to be noticeably ebbing. Remember as more people of that 99% get infected and survive the society gets a herd immunity and the infection rate naturally drops even without a vaccine.
The faster and more artificial the drop the more likely a rapid uptick will be, particularly with the flooding of the market with cash, forgiveness of loan repayments, tax, etc. Further with China restarting first, the supply chains will be progressively replenished around the time the rest of the world will be restarting.
Lastly if we compare apples to apples, the confirmed flu cases (confirmed by testing rather than estimation) versus death rates each year give a 10% death rate, and 0.1% against estimated infections. The same stat for CV19 (ie. against confirmed cases) gives 3% (depending on which day you calculate it), and we have absolutely no idea what the estimated rate is because so many infections are so mild people don't realise they were infected, or were infected before they knew what it was (it is looking like it was already in the US in December and many people are now realising they must have had it because their symptoms match the official symptoms).
If we exclude Wuhan from the death rate numbers in just China, the death rate it about 0.7% across the rest of the country. In Italy with its high numbers, the average age of death so far is 81. Why is Italy such a hot spot? They have a Chinese population in the hot zone, where leather goods manufactiruing is concentrated of over 100k Chinese (because lots of there designer leather business were sold to Chinese interests), so during the critical period there was a huge personnel exchange with China, and the Italians traditionally greet each other with cheek kissing - so very close contact.
Think for a moment, with up to 650k deaths each year from the flu, and millions infected, if we had the same level of reporting and focus on that each year how would the planet be reacting?
The world needs to calm down and get a little more sensible about all this.
GXY will probably go down first then up today - at least that's what I am expecting. Whether it is better to trade this or something else, well, I will probably be trading something else, but that might change. Watch the end of the day across the market to know what will happen tomorrow.
I don't know how long these extreme swings can continue before something breaks, I wouldn't expect it would be much longer, so at some point someone will take a counter action, but what? I don't know yet. The TESLA Freemont factory being designated as non-critical by the local Gov. (so therefore liable to be temporarily shut down) is a bit of an unwelcome complication.
Obviously all the above is my completely uninformed opinion and should probably be disregarded.
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