Chart, page-17719

The more heavily invested you are in something the more you'll see something as being "pretty damn likely".

A classic example: 2-3 years ago MS came out saying lithium was heading into oversupply and $7k pricing.. If you were heavily invested in lithium you would have seen that scenario as "pretty damn unlikely", despite credible evidence suggesting oversupply was almost a certainty.

The bottom line is this: if your money is on the line you are going to see things the way you want to see things. We're all guilty of it. The key is to dislocate yourself from your investment. It's difficult, but it's doable