I personally think both stocks are undervalued at the moment and agree to the inferred point that there will probably be a period in a few years time when the Pilgangoora mine is outproducing Mt Cattlin in may ways but also believe that GXY will still be assigned about the same value by the market because by then I think SDV will have secured full funding of it's own at which point the status quo shifts again depending on how developments progress on both sides. Side note I really enjoy the prospect of a 10MT mine as a goal because you have to always have big ambitions, regardless of the shorter term goals.
In terms of timescale to me it looks like a playout like this:
GXY will go uncontested for production sales for a few years while the Pily mine is being constructed and commissioned. I think they will start with a goal to build a 2MT capacity mine to begin with which I'll estimate as some kind of production within 2 years (I am reluctant to go with a prediction of 12 months but am pretty sure they can do something within 24), better production in the 3rd year and full 2MT sometime in the 4th year. I'm guessing most of the first shipments will be paying down the debt facility and saving to payout the bonds but could be making some good coin 4th year onwards and looking to go for the 5MT upgrade if/when that commences. For GXY it takes time for SDV construction, commissioning and scaling which would give Pily some free time to turn over some nice coin which is the time I think PLS could be bringing everyone else along but depending on how GXY fund SDV there may or may not be any debt to pay at all which means it goes straight into the offtakes and profit and as in previous posts 20kT of lithium carbonate will out profit 20kT LCE every single time. Then James Bay comes into play as well, which may or may not even be ready years early, depending on the literature you subscribe to.
Two slightly different stories playing out and it is a slow motion hurdles race which is going to take years to finish. possibly never.
GLTA - including PLS holders. You'll be alright.
GXY Price at posting:
$1.73 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held