Very tricky trading today. It is not following conventional patterns of which I know, but it is within the range - just both extreme edges. I am thinking there should be at least another couple of days in this cycle, but as far as today is concerned I am thinking a close around 290, give or take a couple of cents. I can't prove it, but the movement today feels intentional.
Looking to me like there is a double bottom over the minute chart, but with today's pattern failures that could easily become a triple bottom, but then I'd bet on a lift into the afternoon with a close around 290. Very tentative at this point. 281 needs to hold, and definitely 275. When it breaks (and holds above) the top fib fan line that should be a good sign. But overall, I don't feel confident in any direction yet. I expected a recovery at 288, but it fell right through that point, so obviously I am missing something here. Historically, April is a dangerous month to trade GXY after the 6th to the 10th, but then we haven't had a year with such staggering amounts of free cash being injected into the world economy either in recent memory. We are pretty much in new territory at the moment, so larger seasonal macro patterns have been a little unreliable so far this year. Patterns are still kind of there but the timing is all out of wack.
Based on this the opening tomorrow would need to be at least 290 (allow for a bit of drawing error - say 289). On the basis of the above, you'd be forgiven for thinking there is still quite a bit to run in this, conservatively 340-350, but it could be higher if use the longer flag pole, but over a longer timeframe, with a retrace in the middle (probably triggered around 340) so I will stick with the shorter timeframe target. I am expecting that target to be very close. ..but like I said, the day's price movement does not leave me confident at this point. If it pans out like I said I will be happier and just accept the usual price management is going on - but the range is kind of extreme.
