These are the ten day charts for ORE and GXY (10 days, 10 minute intervals, with Fast/Slow stochastic, Volume, MACD and RSI 14). I've overlayed the FIB retrace and estimated trading channel. The horizontal lines represent my estimates for the upper and lower bounds for the likely price fluctuation over the next 24 hours based on these charts (not on any patterns yet).
Note the ORE RSI is below the overbought RSI marker, while the GXY RSI is well above it. Also ORE finished well below the expected price based on GXY's price. On the face of it you'd say that GXY is likely to come down a little and ORE likely to climb a little, but both are roughly in the middle of the channel and GXY can climb another 12c before you'd be saying it really must top out (based on past behaviour). There is no indication yet of a change in trend for either stock yet, regardless of whether some of us think there should be.
If I had to guess based on these images (which I suppose I kind of do) I'd say GXY will pop to close to 394, then reverse down a bit but not below 364 tomorrow then climb back a bit maybe 370-376. This is a bit instinctive at the moment because I haven't yet thought through the shape patterns yet. Not yet knowing ORE properly I'd feel it will trend the up a bit from where it is now, possibly hitting 680 and then pulling back to 655 to 660.
At the moment I am just testing out the numbers in my head ad on the charts. The fact is there is room for the shares to go in either direction. They should both go down independently now because of where they are on the charts, but the new normal of them becoming a combined entity justifies them both going up a bit. I feel that there is more euphoria to play out initially, but then the expected retrace should kick in, but I don't think it will be as strong as we might have been expecting a few days ago, and so far I think GXY will be the price setter and ORE will play catch-up.
GXY:
And ORE:
Forgive me, in advance, because I am still getting my head around how to work these two together and am woefully weak on ORE pattern behaviour, so I am very likely to get things wrong for the next few days.
So at the moment I am very much exploring how the two compare and positing potential behaviours based on their interaction, through trial and error we will eventually get it right. At this point I think my trades would be to reduce GXY around 390+ and reduce ORE around 675 to 680, while increasing both closer to the lower end of the channels or earlier if uptrend behaviour was exhibited. Once the retrace kicked in I think I'd be waiting for it to play out, but probably bias towards GXY as the trading vehicle for the next few months rather than ORE. That is just a loose thought map at the moment because I think tomorrow is a bit of a toss up.
The GXY Daily looks like this:
Based on this the number range for tomorrow is 351 to 396, with a high probability of a red candle, and a fib retrace (initial) target of 341 - 347 which should take about 3 days to reach, and a second level target of 315 - 324 which would take about 6 days to reach if it started tomorrow. I'd say that would be the outer limit of it, but the first retrace is just as likely to be the target.
