That is way further than I forecast. I am pure TA, and the...

That is way further than I forecast. I am pure TA, and the reliability of TA (in my view, and particularly my kind of TA which is pattern based) extends minutes to a few days away. The further out you go the more FA matters and the more external factors - like black and white swans - can arise to blow the TA out of the water. For example if you were analysing a couple of months ago from a TA perspective you could not factor in the (then unknown) ORE/GXY merger. An FA, on the other hand might have noticed certain behaviours (like the abandonment of the bald hill court case) and determined that a merger was about to occurr and traded on that basis. The extent of my forecast say up to a year in front is only to note things like - whatever price it is at at the beginning of December it will be higher by the 5th of Jan., or that there is an 80% chance that the SP will be lower in June but higher than June in July of any given year. I.e. Those are annual patterns with very high levels of conformity historically so I factor those in when I am considering whether a given recent pattern is likely to be a harmless retrace or a significant reversal. Sometimes a flag pattern will start as a normal flag, but transform into an inverse flag; in which case, what would have been an up signal becomes a downward signal. Whether that is likely to be occurring at any given point can be influenced by the prevailing historic pattern at that time of year. As with all things in trading there is a lot of guesswork in deciding which of the patterns is dominating at a given time, except where all the patterns are pointing in one direction.

At the moment - and for the next few months - there are a lot of high risk factors occurring world wide, any of which could dramatically impact our pricing. Added to that we are very much at the top of an unusually long SP increase, which could continue, but which has a higher chance of running out of puff as time goes on than it did, say, 3 months ago.

What I would say is that historically, it seems, that there is a high probability that after the merger is completed the price will have an incentive to run up for a month or two as a direct consequence of the merger and after cost savings become apparent from the reductions in admin alone. Whether is does run up, however, will depend on what other world-wide events are occurring at the same time.

If, however, I thought the price was doomed, I would not be trading GXY/ORE as I trade only one side of the SP - i.e. I can't, don't and am morally opposed to shorting a stock. There is usually always some other stock that is able to rise instead.

All of which is a very long-winded way of say "I have no idea", other than in the absence of anything changing in the world I expect the combined entity to be worth considerably more than the sum of it's parts, but whether it is already overvalued or undervalued from an FA perspective I leave to the FA genius's of this forumn.