Heya FE, the million dollar questions!! The projected product...

Heya FE, the million dollar questions!!
The projected product price is anyone's guess, but mine is a lot higher than now, for the next 5-10 years.
The "experts" have all warned of oversupply and declining prices, but continue to be proven wrong.. They have their agenda and play (and guide) the market accordingly.

Imo, for the coming 12 months, the market cap is currently in the ballpark for mount Cattlin alone; but the market is forward looking, and should (and will eventually) factor in anticipated earnings from SDV and JB. It will do it earlier than when they actually produce, since people will try to stay ahead of the curve and invest "early" to reap those eventual returns.

We don't need current revenue to justify current market cap. Just look at those that aren't producing yet. Worth heaps with no revenue! Everyone is trying to position for what is to come.

My opinion, based on assessment of mass adoption of EVs and soaring demand growth "hockey stick" style on its way, is that there is only one way for prices to go in be forseeable future. LCE prices could easily double or triple from here without having a very significant impact on battery pack / EV cost. Imo, the LCE price will do this simply due to market forces of supply and demand... About 50kt requred for every 1 million EVs (or every 1% of sales penetration globally). Demand will therefore, imo, outstrip supply in the next say 10 years as the world shifts to EVs and battery storage. The numbers are staggering. 50-100 more mines required to replace the global light vehicle fleet.

How many are in the works? How many new producers expected next year? A couple perhaps!
Supply will struggle big time.
The accompanying price hikes will drive the sp North. SDV partnership dilution may be very limited, since a decent offtake agreement (say 10 years) with one year's payment upfront will fund a big chunk of the plant build! Minimal equity position imo.

As for SP guesstimates, mine is somewhere around 10-12 bucks in 2019, based on increasing prices (spod and carbonate etc) and SDV and JB getting closer to production. Imo, at that stage, we'll be looking at further de-re risked future earnings (when the 3 ops are in full swing) of +600 million bucks pa.
SDV putting out say 20ktpa could equate to revenue of over 500m on its own; perhaps over 400m profit...? It all comes down to the pricing evolution, by then the prices could be double what they are today, who knows.
That's just my wild a$$ guess though, so DYOR and act accordingly

Having been invested here since 2009, expecting the electric bike surge and vertical integration to get us here a lot sooner, I can now see that the current worldwide transition is very real (unstoppable) this time, and still only in its infancy. Wait till it finds it feet, and goes on a smashing spree though the house!

IMO Dyor you know the drill