GXY 0.00% $5.28 galaxy resources limited

The only chart for me that fully explains recent price action at...

  1. 1,658 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 2879
    The only chart for me that fully explains recent price action at Galaxy is the one at shortman.
    http://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=gxy

    TA that doesn’t mention shorting, is missing the actual reason for the strength of this rally and gives reasonable pointers as to what is going on and what might happen next.
    Its imperfect, the real detail lags the action by 4 days
    but each day I take a look at it for a picture of how many short positions were added the day before.
    I'm sure many of you do the same.

    More shorting now represents further potential for large gains.
    Every still uncovered short from last month adds buying pressure
    and provides support against further shorting.
    If the BlackRock recall is true then there may still be a very large covering event to come.

    Look at the below chart.
    shortman.png

    That downtick you can see at the end of the chart is the first 2 days of the rally.

    You actually have to go to the site to trace along the graph to see the totals for each day to make sense of how the price action relates to the closing of short positions.

    Tues and Wed last week both had the customary 1.7m shorts added
    but the aggregate shorts started coming back down from 42.9m on Monday to 39.5m at close of Wednesday.
    That means 3.5m short positions were closed on those 2 days meaning that all those new shorts were bought by others covering their old positions.

    The result?
    25c improvement in share price for less than 1% reduction in shorts.
    That leaves 10% left
    and it will be interesting to check the data tomorrow.

    Compare the results of closing positions with opening new ones.
    Yesterdays 29.1% of trade volume equated to a 5c lift in the share price.
    Today’s totals we can check tomorrow.

    The reality is that they have to sell much harder to get past the actual strength of support that this company has from instos and retailers.
    What I think we’ll see as more of last week’s data becomes available is that there are still a lot of underwater shorts from this last month. Yesterday 2.3m shorts were added to shake out some profit takers.

    The real question is - Can they take it all the way back to where the stranded shorts are back in profit?
    Or will we see 15-20c rises for each 1% of short covering?

    Whoever has millions to spend on shorting is playing a dangerous game.
    They went too far and took too long to cover.
    How do they drive another downtrend in lithium sentiment when its clear there is massive media heat and interest in the sector?

    Back below $2?
    Not while battery factories in NT is on the ABC nightly news.
    Not while SA installs the biggest battery in the world.
    Not while Tesla’s Model 3 gets press attention.
    Not while Galaxy starts loading the new shipment on Saturday.
    etc.

    This is the positive influence of FA and the proper work of the investor - judging which companies are best positioned to benefit from supply and demand.
    There you go.
    That is my version of an actually useful chart at this point.

    It explains why we have had a strong rally.
    It explains that a large quantity of the recent buying has been short covering (so not as many "real people" are holding as much profit from this rally as you would expect).
    It explains that there is still a lot more to come.
    It explains that if the price is now driven down by shorting that it will rebound just as it has each time before.
    It explains how bigger instos will be looking at what is about to happen next.
    If one wants to enter now then they can be pretty sure that they have the tailwind of more unwinding shorts to drive the sp forward. Not to mention the change in lithium sentiment.

    It also explains why shorting is never mentioned by chartists wanting to illustrate a purely negative point of view. It is the hidden engine behind the price action - negative and positive.
    Ignoring it - is ignoring exactly why we see such strong moves in our sp.
    The last time this happened we went to 67c. It paused about the same point in the rally then kept kicking.
    That is another chart to check out.  Our own.
    October to December 2016.

    The shorting chart also explains today's action - heralded by chartists as negative.
    The shooting star was created by the 2.3m short selling to paint a negative TA picture.
    Despite those positions the sp rose 5c.

    So the market waited a little today for a bit, for the selling pressure to come from profit takers.
    There was a little (and likely a few more large short bets) but as soon as it moved a little it went easily green again.
    Shorters are now easily spooked.

    One little push and they are fighting each other to lock in gains before they go red again.
    25c rise per 1% of covering?
    This rally isn't over while there are uncovered shorts 40-50c underwater.

    My recommendations is keep an eye on one of the most important charts to help you make your decisions.
    While there are shorts there is still charge in the battery.

    Good luck
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add GXY (ASX) to my watchlist

Currently unlisted public company.

arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.