Hope you're right
@sell and where all not smoking a different mother "J" in hope. Incidentally, I expect both will be a reality soon... pain will subside either way.
The thing I still struggle with is how the market has priced FLC. Napkin workings:
MC = AUD$164m.
2018 revenue forecast = US$105-115m (AUD$143-157m @ 0.73 AUD/US)
Q1 Rev $15m, Q2 Rev $20m (forecast), Q3 Rev ?, Q4 Rev ?
Rev Backlog US$94.9m (31 march 2018)
Profitability sometime in 2019
FLC is priced at a x1.04-1.14 revenue multiple??? Huh!
So has this market got it wrong? Perhaps a quick recap of the first half wins will help with the direction we're heading.
2018 H1 Projects wins announced
6 July 18 - Hubei ITEST - 2 x Aspiral L4
4 July 18 - Jinzi - 4 x Aspiral L5 units (
1,000 m3/day)
15 June 18 - Arcelormittal- €3.9M contract Waste-to-energy system
12 June 18 - Hunan Aerospace - 3 x Aspiral L4 units
1 June 18 - Hunan Aerospace - 1 x Aspiral L4 unit
10 April 18 - Rosenblad - 1 x ZLD system
4 April 18 - San Quintin close - US$48m project - US$10m recurring annual rev for 30 years
26 March 18 - Jinzi - 4 x Aspiral L5 units (1,000 m3/day)
6 March 18 - Fluence Argentina - Aguas Bonaerenses - RO system (3000m3/day)
6 March 18 - Fluence Italy - upgrade/expansion of aerobic treatment line
6 March 18 - Fluence Brazil - largest pharma group - RO + Ultra filtration + MBBR and others
6 March 18 - Fluence USA - renowned food/bev client - upgrade aeration process for 2 lagoons
1 March 18 - Phillippines resort - 1 x Nirobox SW
1 March 18 - Buenos Aires Muncipal - 2 x Nirobox
...and lets not forget anticipated updates from
US$100m MOU in Africa
PDVSA Agricola Venezuela to materialise
Stanford University testing and accreditation
SUBRE contract in Israel - completion in Q4 2018
... have I missed any?
IMO you are kidding yourself if you think this company is dead in the water. China is starting to pay attention and there is activity happening around the world. Clean water is scarce and will continue to be for a number of years. We have a disruptive tech that is making inroads into a notoriously conservative industry. We have products that offer solutions across the water table.
With all of this down on paper I have never felt more confident in the companies future. All we need to start seeing is scale in orders of magnitude - 10s, 100s, 1000s (esp in China). The company has indicated this will be a slow ramp with larger orders starting in the later part of 2018.
So I'll ask the question again, has the market got it wrong?
DB
