Originally posted by stockrock
The past couple of months saw a very interesting set of events unfold ... a capital raising at a sharp discount (angered retail holders), then a SPP (sapped a lot of retail demand) ... followed by the Christmas break which saw some retail capitulation snow ball during a low-volume trading period and pushed the share price below 30 cents.
All the while one of the top 20 was topping up (+775k shares) ...
It took some great investigative work from
@morganp to re-ignite some retail demand... and despite word of a 80,000 cubic meter Egypt desal plant.. and another 30,000 cubic meter Mozambique water treatment plant.. the recent rise on low-volume is indicative of a very cautious retail investor base.. that doesn't want to move it up too quickly, as they are wary that the supply could arrive any day (as it has in the past)... but the problem is, the supply hasn't been there.. those who want shares, need to hit the offer side.
I suspect today is going to be driven by some technical buying... so be wary that once the momentum stops, expect the shares to come back into the market as profits will be taken...
I am expecting 2018 revenue guidance to be a small miss (c.US$99m vs fcst US$105m) .. which shouldn't really be a surprise, and anybody shares hitting the market because of this is likely to be snapped up pretty quickly. The real SP driver will be the 2019 guidance.. the commentary around progress in China, US, Africa, Egypt, South-East Asia, SUBRE roll-out.. all of which are going to be front and center in 2019.
What I always had in mind is that 2018 was never going to be a 'break-out' year.. it was the year Fluence Corporation sowed its seeds... and 2019 was always going to be the year we were going to see if these seeds were going to amount to nothing... or sprout into something more meaningful...
@stockrock when would we be able to find out what actual revenue was for the year?
