FLC 2.08% 11.8¢ fluence corporation limited

Since the merger, there were a lot of legacy RWL shareholders...

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    Since the merger, there were a lot of legacy RWL shareholders who sold on market to turn what was once an illiquid asset into cash.

    If I had $2m worth or something illiquid, that I couldn’t sell unless I went out and found a buyer myself (or paid a broker to do so, which could take months)... and suddenly I could convert that to $2m cash.

    Most would sell that right away and that is exactly what happened.

    Even those who initially didn’t want to sell probably changed their minds as they panicked as their “cash” value was falling.

    We also had ex and current staff selling for tax reasons, or simply wanted cash to start their next business venture.

    We also had ex EMC holders who didn’t like the story or wanted to sell out at a profit ...

    We had large institutional investors (Capital Group) selling agressively into any rally... they eventually sold their remaining 25m shares at 35 cents. That’s a huge overhang in any language. It actually explains a lot of what went on near the end.

    So we have had around 18 months post merger for all this to wash through... if all this reshuffling and vendor selling is over with, the share price will be allowed to appreciate more in line with what a rational market would attribute to positive developments in a business.

    I and many here have learnt a valuable lesson... poster merger stocks where one party was previously unlisted and suddenly is issued shares ... we now know to expect an influx of shares into the market post merger.

    If the current selling are predominant retails holders taking profits after buying in the 30’s... then as long as business continues to do well, there is no reason why the share price can’t continue to go up.

    In fact the market still has a lot of “catching up” to do, as the current $300m market cap is still very low for a company that has so much growth potential in the short and mid term.

    When we can land US$200m+ contracts... or even the recent US$20m contract ... our current valuation is a bit of a joke.

    Look at PET as a yard stick... another water company on the ASX... and they get excited when they land a A$5m contract... their FY19 revenue is forecast to be A$27-A$30m, which is a 53% increase on FY18. Their market cap is $200m.

    The difference is that they are slightly profitable... just a few million a year.

    That small difference explains why it is so important for FLC to become profitable... the market will be much more willing to pay a premium for growth if they don’t feel their capital is at risk of dilution every year.

    Last edited by stockrock: 02/04/19
 
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11.8¢
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Mkt cap ! $126.4M
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