What management have told us should happen in the next 4.5...

What management have told us should happen in the next 4.5 months (and my view on how likely they will occur in the next 4.5 months):

1. Ivory Coast financial close by end of Sep19 (highly likely, management's reputation is riding on this and they simply won't let it slip)
2. US$40m Generate Capital debt facility online (highly likely, term sheet agreed and will require typical due-diligence before sign off)
3. YTD San Quintin revenue to be recognised and disbursements received from NADB once US$40m facility is made available (this will be a formality after #2 is completed)
4. 1-2 new BOT contracts (likely, but no guarantee by end of 2019)
5. Ramp up in MABR module production in China to full capacity for one production line (highly likely as hiring has probably already started with training in the next few months)
6. New multi-year Aspiral agreements in China (highly likely, ramp up in production and new forecast of US26m in SPS sales support this)
7. Maiden SUBRE retro-fit sale (likely, but no guarantee by end of 2019)

There is one common thing about all of these items that are due to happen in the next 4.5 months. That is, the financial benefit of achieving each one of these items is going to be recognised in FY20 and beyond. These are all long term initiatives being put in place for the longer term, not just Q4.

The Ivory Coast project will generate US$80m in FY20 and a further US$80m+ in FY21. The O&M contract will be a significant recurring revenue stream on top of this, but expect this to be finalised in FY20.

The US$40m debt facility will fund San Quintin 30 year BOT project as well as fund the short term cash needs to ramp up production and other projects such as the Ivory Coast desal plant.

The San Quinin project (US$38m construction revenue) will bring in approx US$18m in revenue in FY20 (approx. US$10m in FY19) and yield US$10m in recurring revenues for 30 years after completion for their O&M contract.

Any new BOT contracts will add to the existing recurring revenue book, this makes forecasting much easier.

Ramp up in MABR modules is required to meet the anticipated wide-spread adoption of MABR in China in FY20 and beyond.

Multi-year Aspiral orders outside of iTEST will be the driver of Fluence's profitability for the foreseeable future and mark the acceptance of MABR as the best-in-class technology for waste water treatment in China. While Fluence will be kept busy manufacturing and keeping up with orders from multiple customers and realising the contracted revenue, other provinces will be doing their due diligence and form the next wave of growth in China.

We are in the tail end of a great opportunity to accumulate this stock before the above mentioned items come to fruition in the next 4.5 months. Sentiment has improved dramatically in the past 6 months, but the share price is still very far from 'blue sky' potential pricing.

I expect shareholder sentiment to change very rapidly once the above items start to fall into place, this is because the business model is based around recurring revenues and multi-year agreements, so once executed, there is an assured stream of new orders for several years from multiple customers. This allows shareholders to relax and start extrapolating growth. With over US$100m in contracted revenue in FY20 already, the extrapolation could get very interesting.