Corona virus impact is still an unknown ... and it is unlikely to be resolved any time soon ... evidence that business is still operating as per usual with new bulk orders will alleviate the concern, but until China controls the virus (could take a few months, warmer weather will help) .. the risk that it blows out to a global pandemic looms large.
Global markets have effectively ignored the Corona virus thus far.. how long that can go on for is still to be seen ... but if things get out of control in China, then that has a huge flow on effect to many companies relying on China for manufacturing/trade.
This is where the value of the Ivory Coast contract comes into the fore... even without business in China taking in a single dollar.. with the IC contract alone, we can expect almost US$100m in revenue this year. If SQ gets back on line, you can lock in another US$20-25m this year.
But having said all that, if there was one country that could get this sort of outbreak under control.. it would be China. Can you imagine locking down a city in the US which has 11 million citizens? Or maybe the entire East Coast of Australia? It just wouldn't happen... but in China, it can and will happen.
In my opinion, China did itself a major disservice by delaying its response. Local govt officials have already been stood down or demoted for this. But now the central government has taken over - they will get this under control. The human cost will be terrible, but the Chinese have significantly more control over their people than any Western country... and in situations like this, that is actually a huge advantage.
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