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dawatz

556 Posts.

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05/10/17

08:25

Post #: 27670707
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Originally posted by Jacksongreen ↑

... You do realise how a DCF model works, right?

Its underlying premise is to discount back forecast future cash flows to the present day, at an appropriate discount factor, in order to determine the current fair value of a company.

Cadmon's price targets of $1.00 (bear case), $1.70 (base case) and $2.70 (bull case), state what the company should be valued at now. The report is not stating that in 2018, 2019 or 2020, Cadmon values the stock at $2.70 assuming its 'bull case assumptions' materialise. Indeed, it's quite the opposite, Cadmon are stating that - if its bull case assumptions eventuate over the next 3 years to 2020 - then the company's current fair value is $2.70. Conversely, if the 'base case assumptions' materialise into reality over the next 3 years, then Fluence's current fair value is $1.70. Following this pattern, if the 'bear case assumptions' eventuate over the next 3 years, then Fluence's current fair value is $1.00.

In other words; why are your charts showing these target prices being hit in 2018, 2019 or 2020? Theoretically, Cadmon is stating - under each of its investment cases - its current valuation of Fluence (which happens to be higher than the current share price, across all investment cases).

Kindly, all I can see your charts showing is that the share price has to go up, in some fashion and at some point, to reach Cadmon's target prices. You don't need to be a rocket scientist to figure that out.

Not having a crack either, but struggling to understand the value these charts are providing.

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Thanks for clarifying what a DCF is and that the price targets are for what the company should be valued at now.

I was confused by the years presented in Fig. 35. which have a range of years below a Target Price figure.

No offence taken, especially if I've presented potentially misleading and erroneous information.
Glad the situation has been clarified.

All best,
D

Last edited by dawatz: clarity 05/10/17

FLC Price at posting: 68.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 8.3¢		Change -0.002(2.35%)		Mkt cap ! $89.72M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
8.6¢	8.6¢	8.2¢	$7.169K	83.70K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	119757	8.3¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
8.5¢	50245	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	119757	0.083
2	130662	0.082
2	43100	0.081
5	204250	0.080
1	10000	0.079

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.085	50000	1
0.086	10000	1
0.089	20000	1
0.092	22320	1
0.095	40512	2

Last trade - 13.33pm 21/10/2024 (20 minute delay)

FLC (ASX) Chart

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