Hi RYNZNI think your estimates are reasonable, but of course...

Hi RYNZN

I think your estimates are reasonable, but of course will depend very heavily on assumptions we make on so many outcomes. Still, I'm happier to bet on those assumptions than to bet on Afterpay's current valuation of $22 billion that must assume no major competition over the next 10 years before it makes serious profits.

We have to look at various timings for events - as Itsa keeps pointing out, $5 in a couple of years he thinks is realistic for ANP. Looking extremely short term, I noticed after the opening this morning that our Buy was 1.6 mill at 10.0 c and thin sellers. My bet to myself was that the 10.5c line would be taken out within three minute - I was wrong, it took 13 minutes and then went quickly to 11.5c - a 15% gain in 20 minutes.

Looking in a bit more detail at your estimates, you are implying with ODD and Rare Pediatric Disease Designation we will be at around 20c - a big gain from now, and possibly in a week or two if the FDA advises ANP promptly after the end of the 60 day assessment period for RDDD (assuming we have applied for this concurrently with Orphan Drug Designation.)

Jakolu kindly gave us reference to the average gains from successful ODD applications and showed that on average, the gain was only 1% - but that was an average, including mega pharma's for whom it would have been inconsequential. For companies valued at less that US$50 mill, the average gain was 9%, but the gains vary enormously. Of particular relevance to ANP was an ODD handed out to Crinetics Pharma (CRNX) for an two months ago for an Acromegaly treatment and its shares rose - apparently mainly from the ODD - by US$200 mill for a short time. This equates to a gain of 60c per ANP share....

The RPDD request is much more interesting because, if we applied for it concurrently, it may mean that we will have a response to our applications in the next week or two. Granting an RPDD would give enormous status to our research. Perhaps someone can advise the number of applications the FDA receives for RPDD. From my research, it appears that some years back the FDA were anticipating about 50 p.a. I am guessing that about half of these applications are successful for RPDD, but would be delighted for our experts to throw some light on this. Once obtaining RPDD - that now has a sunset of 30th Sept 2020, the applicant then hopes for the Priority Review Voucher. In the last few years, the FDA has granted between only 6 to 9 PRV's a year, so even if we get a RPDD our chances of getting gold are still seem less much less than 50%. Nevertheless, the market will accord a valuation of perhaps 20% of the PRD if we get RPDD - hence 20% of A$140 mill at current prices is $28 mill or ~ 6c per share for the risked future cash value. In addition, the RPDD's status and improved 'proof' of concept will add a similar amount, in my opinion.

So, in short, I see it very likely that the ANP share price will rise to over 20c in a week or two IF an RPDD request was made concurrently to the FDA with our ODD request and both are granted. Others more expert than me have frequently pointed out reasons why our request deserves to be approved based on stronger evidence of efficacy than FDA ODD and RPDD approvals of other drugs.

On your other estimates - price up 28c if we gain PRV - this should be in the ball park or more. The certainty of an additional 80% present value of cash of $140 mill value adds 22c to bring the total market value of the PRV to 28c per ANP share, then can add much more for the huge flexibility that cash brings to accelerate the various options we have available (agree with my mate Akki on this point, but not that we are hamstrung today without cash.)

We don't know what the Acro partnership will bring or how it will be constructed, but we have a fair amount of confidence that a deal will be done in only the next two or three months. Going back to the Crinetics example, its market cap today is around A$700 million and its major product is for an Acro drug trial whose Ph 2 results are expected in Q4 2020. Its other product lines appear minor, so our Acro deal could be very significant to ANP's price. ATL 1102 partnership (MS ?) or other indications ??? again, could be huge, and not far off.