The Wilson report gives a risked 12 month target share price of...

The Wilson report gives a risked 12 month target share price of 57c. This is made up of 45c for European opportunities, and 12c for US market opportunities. It states the unrisked share price target is $1.34.

"Valuation. Our risked $0.57 per share valuation of Antisense is based on a SOTP approach using ROV methodology comprising: a) EU market opportunities ($0.45) and b) US market opportunities ($0.12) for ATL1102 in DMD. Unrisked PT is $1.34 per share."

It defines the risks and catalysts as follows:
"Risks: a) unfavourable clinical trial results; b) lack of capital to support expenses; c) share dilution; d) competitor development of DMD therapies Catalysts: a) EMA approval for trial commencement; b) FDA engagement; c) board renewal; d) partnering opportunities."

So for the share price to move from risked to unrisked, funding needs to be sorted, competitors in the space need to stay non crowded and of course, the drug needs to show good results. So far, we already have promising test results, competitor drug development is on hold. So funding is really the only major risk. Yes we still need to prove efficacy in the phase 2b trial, however the Wilson report does state: "The currently limited treatment landscape is reiterated here where the long-term impacts of chroniccorticosteroid use continue to plague clinicians especially when considering lifelong treatment of children with this drug class. Further, the limited R&D ongoing programs in non-ambulatory (wheelchair bound) DMD (~50% of all patients) continues to highlight the opportunity for Antisense’s ATL1102, provided it can show adequate efficacy on upper limb function measures and good tolerability (which has been the case thus far)."

As the market sees these risks removed, the share price target will increase. But a clear view on future funding will be what is needed for a rerate.A share price of 57c gives a market cap of circa $Aud 326 million ($US 253 million) and a share price of $aud 1.34 gives a market cap of $Aud 776 million ($US 602.5 million). This all for ATL1102 for DMD alone. This presents an interesting dilemma for any prospective takeover offer. Considering the risk involved at the moment a take over offer close to the top of this range may well be considered. However, once funding is defined and established, ANP would have higher intrinsic value. This value would keep growing as the phase 2b in underway if results are promising. Somewhere between finding funding and trial finish, the attraction of being bought out will disappear and revenue growth will become the new target. So, as others have already said, the next few months will define the ANP path. This has potential for share price growth in the short term, and is not considered with the Wilson report share price targets.

These number are very close to how OPT behaved during its phase 2 b study OPT 302. However, where OPT needed to then go on for a phase 3 trial, ANP has the opportunity to get the drug to market after its phase 2b. This is a value catalyst. Add to this ODD with both EMA and FDA. And FDA RPDD and we see a very solid base upon which value can be grown.