Another 5 c worth on the discussion regarding the merits of either a Cap Raise or Partnership to fund the Ph 2b trials and Other Indications:
1. I agree a CR won't go far without more CR's - and more is annoying, time consuming and takes existing shareholders further away from ownership of the company. The alternative of a relatively large CR, if it can be accomplished - say a 1 for 2 shares held, at 30 c would raise roughly $90 mill (600 mill / 2 @ 30c) but still wouldn't last long. Assuming us poor bunnies have almost exhausted our capital in buying as many ANP as we can, not many of us will be able to participate heavily in such a raising. The consequence? The insto's will take up most of the offering - not a disaster - but our share will be diluted and will continue to be diluted with further necessary CR's.
The main issue against a CR is that its unlikely to provide such a reserve of cash to allow the company to free-wheel into so many of its patented Other Indications, some of which could be ready to market only a year or two after a successful DMD Ph 2 trial. And these are huge markets.
2. The partnership option, most logically, with Sarepta, could be structured to allow SRP to own 50% of only one major market - Europe or Nth America, with us owning the ROW. So we lose immediately only 25% of a huge market, readily accessible with so far, nil competition. But with a down payment of ~ US $500 mill we are off to the Melb Cup with our OI's... we are given a huge impetus to quickly spend the resources in skilled staff to get things moving rapidly and to begin trials. And many of these potential OI's have far bigger markets than DMD. So it seems to me that we should get into them as fast as we can. We can give away, say, 25% of the potentially lucrative and low risk DMD market for the huge opportunities elsewhere.
Of course our directors have far more knowledge of the risks and costs of each of these alternatives, but I would encourage them to read an article in today's Australian titled " How R&D built a $188 billion company". It describes:
- how Dr Robert Langer, founder of Moderna, looks at biotechs. "what's the next big thing?" he is often asked. He replies that it hasn't been invented yet.
- He spent decades researching messenger RNA technology, which instructs the body's protein cells to make a protein that triggers an immune response against diseases
- His secret to looking for success?
- finding a platform technology, that can be used over and over again, for different things, different diseases or types of drugs
- it should be validated by in vivo data and excellent scientific papers.
- it should have excellent intellectual property
- the organisation should have excellent business people and investors
Sound familiar?
So don't give up the farm, directors - as Itsa, Sam and our host of very knowledgeable HC posters have advised, there's a lot more to ANP than just DMD.
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