Chart, page-1049

MISSING THE RUN



Elliott Wave pattern and a possible Wave 5 move:

1. Elliott Wave Structure

• The Elliott Wave principle typically consists of 5 waves in the direction of the main trend. The labeling on your chart (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) shows a classical 5-wave pattern:
  • Wave 1: Starts the initial uptrend, from a low point.
  • Wave 2: A corrective wave downwards, respecting the Fibonacci retracement levels.
  • Wave 3: The longest and strongest wave, with a significant upward move, ending around the peak labeled "3."
  • Wave 4: Another corrective wave, pulling back from the high of Wave 3. In this case, it respects the rising trendline and finds support before the next upward move.
  • Wave 5 (anticipated): The chart is predicting another upward leg, which should extend above the high of Wave 3, as seen with the projected path labeled "5." Based on the Fibonacci extension, Wave 5 could target the 2.618 extension around AUD 2.275.

2. Fibonacci Levels

• The chart shows Fibonacci retracement levels between Waves 2 and 3, and now it appears to use Fibonacci extension levels to project Wave 5.
• Key Fibonacci levels:
  • Wave 3 ended just around the 1.565 level (possibly 0.786 Fib level).
  • The chart is eyeing an extension target for Wave 5, based on Fibonacci extensions. The 2.618 level is an important target here (around AUD 2.275).

3. Price Action and Trendlines

• Wave 4 found support on a rising trendline, a bullish sign, and the recent candlestick appears to have closed with strong momentum (large green candle).
• The rising trendline connecting the lows of Waves 2 and 4 confirms an uptrend structure.

4. MACD Indicator

• The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) at the bottom shows signs of a possible bullish crossover as the MACD line (blue) is crossing above the signal line (orange).
• This indicates a possible upward momentum shift, confirming the possibility of a Wave 5 move upward.

5. Summary of the Elliott Wave 5 Potential

• Based on the Elliott Wave count, the price has completed Waves 1 through 4, and the chart is suggesting an upcoming Wave 5.
• Wave 5 could push the price upwards toward the Fibonacci extension target of AUD 2.275 or higher.
• The MACD and the bullish price action (with strong buying momentum) support this scenario.

Possible Scenarios:

• Bullish Scenario (Wave 5 extension): If the price continues upwards and breaks above AUD 1.83 (the 1.618 extension), we may see it test higher Fibonacci extension levels, like AUD 2.275.
• Bearish Scenario: A failure to break the resistance of Wave 3 (around AUD 1.565) might invalidate the continuation of the Wave 5 projection.