Couldn't find the chart thread so ignore this if one already exists.
I am inclined to believe HCH has just put in it's first higher low after a retest of lows back in Dec 2018 and subsequent recent formation of a double bottom (see below).
I still see it in a downward channel however believe that a new uptrend may be occurring and this channel may break sometime in late July / mid August when news catalysts are due; namely a first resource estimate and new drilling results.
I additionally believe that smart money is recognising that the massive stimulus packages being announced globally can only mean incredibly strong demand for copper as Infrastructure projects will be the fastest way to stimulate the economic rebound. Added to this convergence is the demand for a more sustainable investment profile of major energy companies. Take BP for example.
The article below highlights the narrative of whats around the corner for copper demand....It just had a false start but the fundamental argument appears in tact IMO.
https://katusaresearch.com/world-needs-lot-copper-wont-get-3-per-pound/. You will note the forecasts have copper demand well into the mid 20's before a real divergence between supply and demand exist. Like most things I believe that the current environment is pulling forward future demand / trends into the present and those unintended consequences may make Copper a hot commodity once again.
There are several technical resistance points effecting any moves up, these being the highlighted section around the 3.0c range and the Head and Shoulders top pattern outlined. I still want to see a short term higher high put in to confirm an initial uptrend in the broader downtrend if that make sense.
Once cleared there is significantly less resistance to move back up to 9.0c - 10.0c range before further consolidation and further strategic Co decisions re funding / partnerships allow further de-risking the project. I would assume a takeover would be the most likely outcome eventually as I see Copper on the verge of becoming a strategic commodities to nations economic recovery models.
Overall. The stock has had it's initial Boom, then the Bust and now looks to be completing the consolidation phase after a false start.
Weekly Chart - Less noise but still shows solid price action data backed by volume.
Perhaps some further selloff's but these IMO would be short lived.
Where is Hot Chilli in terms of Development stage? Well I see the next 6 - 18 months being right around here...Ground floor so to speak.
To sum up. It might be an early speculative buy, but I don't believe I'm wrong in assuming HCH could be a great Copper play for the foreseeable future.
Disclosure I only hold 1 million @2.1c (skin in the game). Will be rotating in and out to further build the position over the next 12 - 18 months and then go long.
GLA and happy to read counter arguments backed by something substantial.
Cheers
(20min delay)