BRN (ASX) Chart

Originally posted by KejiSorted: ↑

I feel brave so I am going to post a few ideas.

Disclaimer before the BRN army jumps at me:

I am all in BRN, believe in the product, believe in the team and believe great times are ahead. I own BRN shares and plan to hold for a long time. Now that is out of the way I want to have a look at why there seems to be 2 groups of people in this forum, the happy super bullish no matter what people, and the people who raise concerns and are a bit unsettled with BRN.

The following graphs show the % of profit/loss that somebody would be sitting at if they had bought at any given day in 2021 considering the current price of 0.445 (20-09-2021, late afternoon when I did these plots). Data has been sourced from yahoo financial. I have considered the price at close for every day. This has been my methodology, if you have a different one, will be happy to see your analysis.

For 2021, as you can see in the figure below, essentially no matter when you bought you would be sitting at a loss if you bought this year. Only if you bought on 5 specific days of the March dip you would have your head above water. The average gains for 2021 is a 15.53% loss with a maximum of over 40% loss.

Now I show the similar plot for 2020. In this case, you are laughing right now. A move from 0.65 to 0.45 means nothing to you so you are comfortably sitting on your sofa waiting for the big news to come and continue your rally. Well done guys. The average gain is 413.72% with a maximum of 1335% gains.

The last plot is the last full year, September 2020 to September 2021, which includes the Renesas news. In this case if you bought at the very end of 2020 you are still sitting on some decent margin, but nothing crazy (20-40%). The average Sept 20 to Sept 21 is loss of 4.59%

My conclusion is that BRN has performed very badly in 2021 and not particularly well in the last full year. This is not an opinion, just look at the data I shown above. Therefore I understand a lot of people here might be a bit pissed and/or worried, and they have the right to be.

I also understand a lot of other people, specially the ones that were brave enough to buy very early on (2020 or before) are very comfortable and maybe dislike people looking down at BRN. Congratulations to you all but be mindful of others.

I am still positive about BRN but we cannot ignore the reality of 2021 so far. And I mean so far because tomorrow the history can change.

Now, what do you think?

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The only problem I have with your graphs and your conclusions is that those who bought at the peaks and anywhere else along your graphs had they taken the time to read and listen to the communications from the company called Brainchip whose shares they were buying with their money they would have known that the time line to commercialisation was at least the second half 2021 if they bought at any time up until January, 2021.

Thereafter they would have bought knowing that the timetable for the production of the AKD1000 chip had been pushed out by 4 months meaning that everything along the line following the release of the chips had also been moved out by four months so that commercialisation was going to be happening from sometime mid first quarter 2022. By commercialisation I am referring to receipt of growing income from commercial sales.

So knowing this how does someone who has bought shares complain that the company has not moved to profitability sooner than the company has stated. We are not yet at the end of 2021 and certainly not at mid first quarter 2022.

Are we to suffer and console those who do no research and jump on board a company without any idea or concern for the consequences of their actions. There have been multiple opportunities for many to get off and find other companies to invest in which they consider offer much better prospects.

I actually am not really following your point. We know what the share price has done. I am on record as saying in fact that I predict the share price will go up and down. So what is it you are trying to say other than you want every one to say the share price has gone up and down and we feel sorry for those who did no research.

Certainly the company called Brainchip has been telling the truth all along and it was there for every single person who has bought shares to read and understand. Should the Government step in and provide cooling off periods for those who jump in and buy shares without reading what the company is telling the public about their timetable and commercial opportunities. Should companies lie and make up fluff announcements to make nervous shareholders who do no research feel better. What precisely is your point?

My opinion only DYOR
FF

AKIDA BALLISTA