I feel brave so I am going to post a few ideas.Disclaimer before...

I feel brave so I am going to post a few ideas.

Disclaimer before the BRN army jumps at me:

I am all in BRN, believe in the product, believe in the team and believe great times are ahead. I own BRN shares and plan to hold for a long time. Now that is out of the way I want to have a look at why there seems to be 2 groups of people in this forum, the happy super bullish no matter what people, and the people who raise concerns and are a bit unsettled with BRN.

The following graphs show the % of profit/loss that somebody would be sitting at if they had bought at any given day in 2021 considering the current price of 0.445 (20-09-2021, late afternoon when I did these plots). Data has been sourced from yahoo financial. I have considered the price at close for every day. This has been my methodology, if you have a different one, will be happy to see your analysis.

For 2021, as you can see in the figure below, essentially no matter when you bought you would be sitting at a loss if you bought this year. Only if you bought on 5 specific days of the March dip you would have your head above water. The average gains for 2021 is a 15.53% loss with a maximum of over 40% loss.




Now I show the similar plot for 2020. In this case, you are laughing right now. A move from 0.65 to 0.45 means nothing to you so you are comfortably sitting on your sofa waiting for the big news to come and continue your rally. Well done guys. The average gain is 413.72% with a maximum of 1335% gains.




The last plot is the last full year, September 2020 to September 2021, which includes the Renesas news. In this case if you bought at the very end of 2020 you are still sitting on some decent margin, but nothing crazy (20-40%). The average Sept 20 to Sept 21 is loss of 4.59%




My conclusion is that BRN has performed very badly in 2021 and not particularly well in the last full year. This is not an opinion, just look at the data I shown above. Therefore I understand a lot of people here might be a bit pissed and/or worried, and they have the right to be.

I also understand a lot of other people, specially the ones that were brave enough to buy very early on (2020 or before) are very comfortable and maybe dislike people looking down at BRN. Congratulations to you all but be mindful of others.

I am still positive about BRN but we cannot ignore the reality of 2021 so far. And I mean so far because tomorrow the history can change.

Now, what do you think?