Well a shorters' gotta do what a shorter does, but then BRCHF & BCHPY have been going OK over in the nthn hemisphere lately, anyway so much for the daily dogs breakfast.
Ladies and gentlemen, they're lining up at the barriers for the regular monday morning ASX sweepstakes.........so it's time for another mad mchale charting talk for those of you who can bear it.
In a recent charting post I made some wave 3 projections for BRN (see post #58244954), so have to tell you my calcs were incorrect so will adjust in order to set the ledger straight.
View attachment 3997442View attachment 3997511If you look at Fib extensions listed above the chart I posted at the time you will see each calc has 70 added to it (which was price when I did the post) - my bad there the price at the low of wave 2 was 36.5c. This is important as you will see below:
161.8 of 94 = 152.09 + 36.5 = 188.59, which is very close to where we finished in what I am calling
minor wave 3, which means we would be in minor wave 4 if my tagging is correct. Elliott Waves subdivide into fractals of themselves which enables tagging from 1 minute out to decades.
The tagging I have worked off for the chart below was based off 4 hour bars and then condensed back to daily bars for better presentation. So if you follow my drift here after BRN completed major wave 2 down on
5th Oct 2021, BRN then commenced major wave 3 up, in my previous post there was a caveat on the wave 3 call and that was that BRN had to exceed the 97c high of major wave 1 up which was posted in Sept of 2020.
You will also see if you take a look at the chart above that major wave 2 was very close to a fibbo 61.8 retrace of major wave 1, so for all those who might disparage technical analysis - why do we see these fibbo numbers
repeated so often ??
Definitely not trying to be a smart Alec here (I remain your humble servant), but my approach is a mix of TA and Fundamentals as well, and FA is particularly important if you are speculating on small caps IMHO, because we know small caps would seem to be generally news driven - but not always - as we have just seen with BRN.
But yes, it would appear that we have reached the tipping point, one final thing I will add with regard to this segment on this ongoing TA vs FA conversation; I do know professional traders (work at brokerages) who trade small caps off mostly TA. personally I didn't believe it when I first became aware of their approach -
but some do.
Moving on my recent tagging on BRN, I want to note here this tagging was done from the close of trade last Thurs SP @ $1.40, so what happened on Fri was no surprise. It is perfectly normal (and healthy) for equities to retrace. So whilst it is very heady and enjoyable to see BRN heading off into the blue sky, nothing can continue to go with such verticality for too long, and voila - the retrace but don't dread it - embrace it, it's just part of the journey.
The completion of minor wave 3 on Fri was what some analysts might call a "blow off top, so we regather for some consolidation before the next move up. Again if my tagging is correct it is the minor wave 5 up, which will follow minor 4 down, this would then complete major wave 3. See chart below.
View attachment 3997736I have set up a fibbo retrace scal on right of chart and the levels indicated are very common 4th wave retracements of 3rd waves, 38.2 is around $1.40, 50.0% is $1.26 and 61.8% is $1.12. So some EW basics, the 3rd wave can never be the shortest in a 5 wave movement.
I will do some 5th wave projections in a future post, but would prefer at this point to see some further price action, which will of course enable a more informed position on my wave tagging (which could readily change if EW basics and price action prove my tagging incorrect). Should also point out that this major wave 3 (which is the big picture in this conversation) could develop into something significantly bigger, so there are more fibbo projections than the ones I have listed in the previous post which I mentioned above #58244954, so while these projections aren't as commonplace they are certainly well within the realms of possibility (and as I have said in a recent post "anything is possible here"), so further fibbo extensions 4.236%, 6.854%, 11.089% and more.
I had wanted to complete this post before the market opened, but that deadline is now in the shade, but no matter, I will continue post haste, as I want to add that new BRN investors should be very aware that there are people who come on this HC forum with an agenda to panic you into selling your shares. My posts on EW analysis are in the interests of an informed market, I have not ever trade a single BRN share, I have simply accumulated. I have no problem with people who trade and I have been a trader myself previously.
Different people take different approaches to making money on the markets, and in a "free market" believe it or not this is in everybody's best interest, but having said that I am a believer in Adam Smiths' invisible hand. However I have scant regard for people who deliberately try to inculcate fear in less experienced investors in order to further their agenda, which in this case is to make money off your fear.
So be aware there are people all over HC who run these agendas, some of them work for instos or large brokerages (and are therefore paid to do this stuff ???), some simply run their personal agenda. It's a pretty low level business, but they are out there. However as some of you would know it's the instos BOTS that I really dislike, and for me the serial pest posters (like the one mentioned at the top of this post for me are of no interest).
In closing this post I will just insert something which I noticed in last Thursdays Oz (The Australian)
View attachment 3997955The above clipping is instructive. As we now know APT went from $5 to $160 on a really poor business model in around 12 months, inflation and higher interest rates will smash APT because of that said business model (and I can't say that I feel at all sorry for Jack Dorsey), it has already less than half its' recent high. There will be a lot of money looking for their next mega tech unicorn on the ASX, which is now the home to a growing number of highly valued techs and my sense of it is, that there will be plenty more Aussie techs to come. Can I simply say come over to BRN, we have the business model and we have ground breaking technology that is here at the right time, and no-one else has it, it is a no brainer, and anything is possible here.
Will BRN be the next APT, I reckon there are good odds on that one, and we're racing.
GLTAH
mc
(20min delay)
