It has been a week since my BRN chart post of the 14 Feb. In that post I was questioning whether 0.59 would provide resistance and set up a double bottom.
Well over the next week it's plain to see that that didn't happen. Went through 0.59 like a knife through butter. So in the week we have registered a new recent low low of 0.50.
Things to note on the daily chart.
It has been 30 trading days since the daily hi-lo candle traded entirely above the 10DMA. In those 30 days only on 5 days did the daily hi-lo candle split across the 10DMA and on the other 25 days below.
The stope of the 10DMA downwards is very steep. If fact steeper in the last week. MACD has been negative for about 28TD's. RSI(5) is currently at 27.9 with room to move and spend time in the red oversold zone for a number of days. To say that the charts are not looking good is a huge understatement.
You don't need to be a statistician to understand why. But, let me point out some facts, that can be verified, to put things in plain sight. I am going to show the obvious.
. On the 27 Jan 2022 the 4th quarter Dec report was announced and for the year 2021 the "Receipts from customers" was 2.523K the closing SP on the day was 1.38
. On the 31 Jan 2023 the 4th quarter Dec report was announced and for the year 2022 the "Receipts from customers" was 2.717K the closing SP on the day was 0.64.
In summary "Receipts from customers" went up year on year by 194K being a 7.7% rise. The year on year share price went from 1.38 to 0.64 a fall of 53.6%. I think its fairly safe to say that all shareholder during the calendar year of 2022 were expecting a very significant rise in income which failed to materialise.
Looking forward to the calendar year of 2023. I think its fairly safe to say that shareholders, including me, are expecting a very significant rise in income. The current SP is 0.52. If in Jan 2024 the Dec quarterly report comes out and reveals that the yearly 2023 income is 27,170K ( a 1000% increase on last year) then the SP may well and truly still be in the 0.40 - 0.50 range. Because it may become obviously evident to the market that the company is growing at a snails pace in accordance to the markets expectations and not fulfilling it's promise. In fact 27m may not even be profitable by that stage.
These are just my thoughts and you can draw your own conclusions about the markets reaction to an income of 27m. So DYOR.
However what must be rationally considered is what happens if 27m income in 2023 is in fact fanciful. It maybe that my/ our understanding of the uptake and subsequent translation into revenue for BRN is to ambitious for the industry we are dealing in, time wise.. Do we really understand the speed of how these things happen? I am questioning myself about this issue. Announcements of concrete deals (I expect a number) in my opinion will come but how quickly does it translate to the bottom line for BRN.
I am using this post as a sounding board, to develop my thoughts, to try to understand what the near term future could hold. At this point in this post, I am not as optimistic as I was when I started.
Its getting very late. I was going to look at the charts again to find some targets. I'll leave that to another day.
But to conclude. Even to reach that 27m revenue target what need to happen to the "Receipts for customers" at each of the four quarterly reports. March income of 2000k or less isn't going to be treated by the market very well. Half year income of 5000k would be a joke to some. How is this flow of income going to manifest itself over the duration of these four reports.
Next. how will the markets treat these various levels of 2023 income. 7m, 17m, 27m, 47m, 67m, 87m, 107m. What would be needed to power up the share price.
DYOR
Cheers from a slightly depressed Lies.
PS When is the question on my mind not if.
BRN Price at posting:
52.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)