Hi Folks
I woke early and could not get back to sleep. After my last chart post I decided to do some more analysis on what's there and as a result I decided to do some serious digging. I have repeated the chart I posted yesterday.
Analysis;
* The first lower-low, Black 0.765 took 19 weeks before the breakdown occurred,
* The second lower-low, Purple 0.059 (23% reduction of previous lower-low) took 14 weeks (67 trading days) before breakdown occurred
* The third lower-low, Green 0.50 (15% lower SP of previous lower-low) took 19 trading days before breakdown occurred
* The fourth lower-low, Blue 0.405 (19% lower SP of previous lower-low) took 21 trading days before breakdown.
* The fifth lower-low Red 0.35 ( 13.5% lower SP of previous lower low ) still to be determine how many trading days if a breakdown is to occur. However in the previous two patterns its between 19-21 trading days and we have already had 5 trading days so in 3-4 weeks I will be watching.
If the pattern continues then possible extrapolation is ?
* The sixth lower-low ? Brown 0.30 (13.5% lower SP of the previous low) could be on the cards.
* The seventh lower low Pink ?
Next results of my diggings. All available through ASX announcements.
From annual report. Announcement 24 Feb 2023
Overview The Group made a net loss after income tax for the year ended 31 December 2022 of $22,087,670 (2021: $20,981,309).
(cash burn $22m per annum )
Mar 2023 quarterly report Announcement 28 Apr 2023
FINANCIAL UPDATE The Company ended the March 2023 Quarter withUS$17.7M in cash compared to US$23.1M in the prior quarter. It should be noted that the A$12.2M cash received from LDA Capital will be reflected inthe Appendix 4C for the next quarter.
BrainChip reported net operating cash outflows of US$6.3M vs.US$1.9M in the prior quarter. Cash inflow from customers in the current quarter of US$0.04M was lower than the prior quarter (US$1.1M).
( With BRN mar qtr cash $17.7M plus LDA cash $12.2 results cash $29.2m minus $6.3m cash outflow the next quarterly June operating cash could be $22.9 (any serious income would add to this). that's enough cover Sept and Dec quarter with around $10m left. The company is committed to at least one more draw down of minimum of $15M before the end of the year, which is enough to fund an additional two quarters cash burn taking us to the end of the June qtr 2024.
As of the last Top 20 shareholder list LDA had 9.2m shares plus the 30m added in the first quarter of this year takes their holding up to around 40m and with one more $15m minimum drawdown should add about another 35-60m shares. So I am expecting LDA to have about 80-100m shares by the end of the year. Maybe as high as 100m which was announced for the draw down purposes on the 13 Oct 21
Some dilution, $100m shares in about a year (5.6% dilution) .
So after my digging I personally think that a brown lower-low at around 0.30 is feasible. A possible pink lower-low can't be totally ignored.
Just the way I deal with the markets so that I am not surprised by what plays out , as always DYOR
cheers Lies
(20min delay)