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scooter83

6,342 Posts.

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06/12/20

11:33

Post #: 49373651
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Originally posted by Bouncingfiddle: ↑

lol.. FA will keep it up there mate. anyone selling at the moment just doesnt know what it is currently worth

How do you value a company based on a commodity that is cyclical. Forecasts are wrong. Iron ore was flopping hard 2 years ago. Is it you don't remember? IRR of 58% seems good. Though compared to the SP? what is it? Higher the SP, lower the earnings per share, EPS. So what is the fair value of it? Either the media are over optimistic and fearmongering.

No one here has given a value of the company. If the EV ( enterprise value was given in the DFS), then its not far off. Its

So after 6.5 years is the forecast of iron ore going to be $100+? after 1 year. How long before its rerated downward. I recall the forecast for iron was going to flop if you read the media in 2019 for 2020. What of gold? If I recall gold was a sure bet until 2022. Now it could crash . Now to pretend that AFR or mining.com haven't been wrong on forecast before claiming that Vale won't come in 2022. Its more likely to come in mid or end of 2021 and out perform is a joke.

How much of the iron ore is hedged and how much is spot price? Can't even find this information. We don't even know if chinese are buying at the spot price and how much is being bought at the spot price. Why aren't there articles on that?

EBITDA is given why isn't per annum earnings given. IMHO my valuation is its near its priced proper valuation already. Its not a company like BHP or RIO. Its got one mine, high risk, could run into a issue and its worth nothing. Since it has a high risk, could argue its MC of $120M but its not like the value will increase in the assets of the company.

Then the argument is they will find something else and use the cash. We don't decide on what they do. We get to decide to buy or sell. Thats it. They will probably dilute it over and over like all the other speccies.

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interesting post you have here and it seems you are either holding a stock you see that wont increase in value, in which point I don't know why you are holding and you have alot of questions about a stock but at the same point have already decided your view without those answers of those questions. If you want extra number, what I generally do is either email or phone the company..

you mention 2 yrs ago.. that is old news to me.. you mention the media, the media generally lie and tell you whatever story you want to hear. for me, i consider current day events and trends, but that is just me.

FEX Price at posting: 21.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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