Chart, page-266

I respectfully disagree. Supply is a massive issue now with IO and this isn't just going to be resolved over night. It takes years to bring new mines to market & shit loads of capital. Even at these prices, my expectation and what my research is telling me is that IO prices will be higher for longer, at least above $100usd for the next two years potentially longer - potentially with an ave price above $120


Vale has serious issues that go beyond CV19. An example of this is that only a few weeks ago 3 super tankers hit each other leaving port - rendering all three out of action for repairs for some time. One cannot just dial up a supertanker like a pizza. CV19 is killing the workers at Vale and despite the vaccine and actually reducing the available pool of potential workers available to work in its operations - it's a disaster for humanity, Brazil's corrupt system is being torn apart by CV and the lack of a functional gov / health system. I understand there is a cloud hanging over Vale as tests have shown many of the tailings dams at other mines have also been shown to be structurally questionable - We all know what happen at Brumadinho in 2019 & Mariana in 2015 . Vale hasn't settled the compensation payments to the local communities and are trying to low ball the local gov & the people to the tune of 5 Billion. The courts are not going to do Vale many favours. IMO Vale won't be hitting its production forecasts for a few years. Its not a question of money, its an about life & death for many of the locals. So sad.

Additionally steel makers in India are pressuring the gov to put a holt on IO exports - they are already massively effected by CV19 with more than 40% of the IO mines working with a reduced output.

Once the Vaccinations role around with Interest rates being as low as they are & with a great need to get workers back to work & economies back up and running - Gov's will be spending massive amounts of money on infrastructure - just like the Chinese. This will push IO prices higher for longer.