Without getting into proper NPV analysis and extreme detail with forecasts, and instead doing a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation (so please don't shoot me)....
Excluding the day of the announcement itself and the share price surge and retracement that followed, today the market is valuing the overall business at 0.015 cents per share more than it valued it the night before the Nextstellis approval was announced (it closed Thursday at 0.46c, tonight it closed at 0.475c).
If the market cap figure shown here on HC tonight is correct, that is roughly 1,802,736,842 shares on issue. At a 0.015c increase in closing price from Thurs until tonight, that implies an overall increase in Mayne's value of $27,041,052 (shares on issue x 0.015c). Also assuming everything else remained equal, and the approval wasn't already baked in to some degree (which it possibly was).
Still doesn't seem much for an FDA approval that CitiResearch (in its 31 March client note) conservatively expects to become a positive contributor to Mayne’s EBIT in FY23, with forecast sales to peak at $100 million in FY24 (half of the company’s $200 million target). Lots of water yet to go under the bridge with the share price, and sales still to convert from forecasts, I know. But gee the market sure can be fickle.
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