When you don't know the news flow it can go ballistic anytime,...

When you don't know the news flow it can go ballistic anytime, but with BRK we already know what's going to happen with the Jewell well because they have told us. There is only one thing left that we don't know that could make the share price go ballistic: the final flow rates. Those aren't due until September 1st at the earliest, which is still 7 working days away. So there's a very good chance that it won't go ballistic until from September 1 onward.

Plus we know that market is dumping energy stocks at the moment, another headwind (for the moment) to a sudden move upward. That increases the chances that it won't go ballistic before September 1. And increases the chances that it will drop further before September 1.

Holding off from buying until September 1 is still a risk, but a risk that currently has the odds in the buyer's favour.