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Originally posted by W3hunter: ↑

I`d like to see that system!..Yep the 9 ema/62% Fib entry is pretty good, but we still need to come up with a good exit..the 9 and 13 keeps us in the trend on the dips and we might get 2 or 3 swings higher because of that which is great, but there's still way too much space between the final top and a 9/13 exit. this has been a tough one...the Fib extensions and Bollinger band was a good exit but I`m 50/50 on EWs these days..we need to find something a bit more dynamic maybe like the CBL..or a shorter set of EMA`s 5/9 or something dunno..hmm...

Actually on that 9 ema/62% Fib, TMG was interesting today, the one hr chart 9 ema was up there and looking ok but the daily was well below..(so the distance between the 1 hr ema and a new high was way too close) that said to me that both the daily chart and the hourly weren't going to make a higher high today. (because most often the daily chart wont make a higher high unless the 9 ema is above 62% Fib there)..

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I need to take some time off and really work on these systems now! Got quite a few ideas to test.

As far as exits go, we need to decide if we are following the "super trend" or just in the trade for a quick profit i.e. 80-100%. The 1.618 fib extension level often works out pretty close to 100%.
Taking ZIP as an example, it was the perfect trade to flip for 100%, after that it consolidated for a couple of months before doubling again. The wider stop which is the red line, is the lowest low for past 35 days, (not bad results in back testing) it would have us still in the trade but it took another 5 months to get to the level of the quick flip! That's five months where we could have had two more trades like ZIP flipped for 100% again, a big opportunity cost.

The more I think about it, it's probably not a bad result if we just set the profit target at the 1.618 fib level and move to an aggressive stop above that level (CBL to let it run if it wants?), then look for a re-entry on any new fib grids, i.e. April to June on ZIP below. That's still a good trade up approx. 100% again from $1.5 to $3. What I need to work out is when would we trade this second entry vs a new entry from a fresh GC, we need to work out some way of ranking the trades, i.e. rate of change or a short term average true range etc.

The other question to think about is, does this system rely on those large outlier trades, the 4-5x trades. Or is there enough that make it to the fib extension level to make it profitable. I haven't worked out a way to back test anything with a fib level, other than doing it manually but that takes too much time.