Yeah i totally agree with you in regards to needing more validation, but in this market, ive found more success in targeting a good risk/reward rather than the typical 61% fib break which is at 635 for MTH. Instead, if I'm confident in a setup i try to find a tight stop. So in the case of this one, a perfect scenario for me is a break of the res at 45 (nice green candle and vol), with a backtest of the 9 ema for a pickup of the first parcel, then the stop gets set at the higher low made on the 9 ema backtest. By the time it gets to the 62% fib res you would already be up ~40% which is more than enough to get out with profit if it rejects the fib. If it continues onto its target you've made over 150%, which is great considering the 10-15% risk.
On the weekly momentum, yep definitely stalls them, and I think it's then important to take into the context of the price history, for me this stock is potentially starting a weekly uptrend, so a shaky weekly momentum is to be expected. It also offers price and momentum time to settle a bit to avoid overcooking. I feel as though this could be a weekly impulse wave, so the momentum is showing wave 2, and when it turns green again it will signal wave 3.
With such a high vol breakout, its unusual for these to break down, but it does happen which is why the tight stop is important. MTH has low SOI, market cap only 60mill. The only concern for me is that the first wave was quite a spike ~800%, and as youve suggested it does potentially cause momentum issues.
