Well, if you want Technical Analysis, it's pretty obvious what's happening.
As evident in figure 1, Blue Crab landings around the Pitcairn Islands has remained pretty consistent through 1950 and 1980, however a substantial increase in demand between 1980 and the year 2000 saw an increase of 30%+ beyond sustainable harvesting.
As evident in figure 3, over this period, the liveable environment for these blue swimmer crabs has steadily decreased over these years due to overfishing and warmer ocean currents, thus the market has reached critical levels.
We are now expecting all time high prices for Blue Swimmer Crabs as demand has picked up, yet scaling back the harvest is essential to maintain supply as evident in figure 3 and 4.
Thanks for the update on the crabs Dark! So where does copper come into play? Well, it's pretty obvious when you overlay the copper production versus the blue crab landings charts as well as the relevant prices. Only a moron couldn't put the two together.
Whilst copper has consistently followed the blue swimmer crab pricing over the last 70 years. Furthermore, there's only been a few points in history, where copper has dropped below the blue swimmer crab price trend line. This indicates copper is currently undervalued, as it should be another few basis points above the red trend line.
Now similar to how blue swimmer crabs were over harvested throughout 1980-2000, and how this is sending prices to all time high prices due to increased consumer demand and acceptance, and reduced supply, Copper has witnessed a similar period of "over harvest" throughout 1990 and 2010.
Now when you consider that this over supply of copper has led the price of copper falling below the blue swimmer crab trend line in between 2010 and 2020, we can expect that this has affected both the growth and rate of discovery for new copper resources and development of new mines. Hence 2020 to 2030 will be boom years for Copper, which should see the metal average well above the blue swimmer crab trend line.
Fantastic. Copper to the moon! But what about CYM?
Well, as remote as CYM is to the port of Tianjin China (6,754km), China's 6th largest port city, the Pitcairn Islands is similarly as far as the Port of Oakland (6,942km), the United States 8th largest port city. This proves that despite the remoteness of either location; the commodity is equal in demand.
In fact CYM has a leading edge in this factor. With a pound of crab fetching only $1.55, versus a pound of copper fetching $4.45, the margins on shipping long distances are in favour of CYM over the Pitcairn islands.
Thank you for reading.
