Nice analysis. I don't expect any end to the Russia-Ukraine war...

Nice analysis. I don't expect any end to the Russia-Ukraine war any time soon. It suits Russia's ambitions to draw out the war.

As you point out the copper chart is giving good entry signals right now.



Copper (futures) have:

Crossed above 50 day moving average - tick.
Recovered above the 38.2% retracement level of the 2022 correction - tick.
Passed the 0,1,2,3 move having put in three consecutive higher highs and higher lows since the bottom (0) - tick.

Support at 3.93 and 3.70 would be very bullish.

Here's a very messy chart, showing long term support and resistance in pink, fib retracement levels from the previous leg up and the recent correction.

Note, that while price has moved above the 200 day moving average, the 50 day MA has not yet crossed above the 200 day MA (ie, has not risen above a more conservative entry trigger).



Except that, when priced in AUD copper is currently in a stronger uptrend and has put in a bullish 50/200 day MA cross-over as shown by @Bison8 above.




I've tried to replicate Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis TA for the Aussie market (Relative strength is measured against the All Ordinaries). Copper passes the three entry criteria.



While there are good bullish "entry" signals for copper, that is not to say the bullish breakout will last. It could fail. The probability is in favour of a continued uptrend for the time being.

Part of the recovery can be attributed to the fall in the $US which has seen its 50 day MA cross below the 200 day MA (bearish signal).