RMS has an EV of probably about $1.2b to $1.25b including cash earned this quarter while SPR will probably have an EV at end March of about $1.55b based on today's SP.
In the next 10 years from FY26 RMS has an average annual production of 245k Oz and average AISC looks like around $2,100.
It is not inconceivable for SPR to have a similar production profile over 10 years BUT it will likely have an AISC a lot lower than RMS - maybe 25% lower or even lower.
While very rough SPR probably deserves to have a higher EV than RMS but one needs to include a discount for SPR EV as it is not yet in production. Despite this SPR's EV still looks low compared to RMS due to its potential of a much lower AISC.
My own view is that with the current POG and potential for a higher gold price both stocks look cheap relative to other gold producers.
Given RMS would need to largely use its own script for a SPR TO it would pose an unacceptable dilution of current RMS shareholders at RMS's current SP - ie I now believe a TO by RMS is unlikely for quite a while as it will take some time for the RMS SP to recover and it may decline even further- we now have a DEG type situation ie GOR being a major shareholder. And if SPR ends up with a resource 4-5m Oz by end of this year then a TO by RMS is unlikely ever to occur. RMS needs a high SP to TO SPR otherwise they will dilute their shareholders too much.
Incidentally DEG expert came out with a valuation significantly less than NST is willing to pay - NST is paying too much, quite a rare situation. NST SP went down today.
SPR Price at posting:
$1.42 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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