Hi Edmorgrimm and thankyou ( : ) ) , and yes to Ursula, but as far as Marcus goes I think that’s the only thing I’ve ever remembered by him (and that’s largely because it confirmed my confirmation bias).
By way of background I put my heart and all my spare money onto one stock - NRW - and life timed that for me so it was a perfect time to enter - by virtue of the cost of shares, my need for retreat, and some ‘pennies from heaven’ falling periodically into my lap.
From this position - as those shares increased in value - I was able to learn a little about the stock market….and ‘meet’ people of good heart who know a LOT about the stock market (I’m mostly looking at you Maestro!) who took me under their wing as I progressed along that road that says making your own mistakes is the best way to learn.
So just a very ordinary punter I am here!
But FWIW there’s a couple of other well known articles that have stuck in my mind along the way… One on cognitive bias I first saw when it was posted by @pbawley (I’m looking at you too pbawley! ) https://www.magellangroup.com.au/insights/10-cognitive-biases-that-can-lead-to-investment-mistakes/
… can’t say it stops me but it helps to lnow the nature of the beast
And another - a transcript of a 1994 talk by the late Charlie Munger -
It’s full of interesting observations and wisdom that have held true over the last 30 years
… “And the one thing that all those winning betters in the whole history of people who’ve beaten the pari-mutuel system have is quite simple. They bet very seldom.
It’s not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it—who look and sift the world for a mispriced be—that they can occasionally find one.
And the wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don’t. It’s just that simple.
That is a very simple concept. And to me, it’s obviously right—based on experience not only from the pari-mutuel system but everywhere else.
And yet, in investment management, practically nobody operates that way. We operate that way—I’m talking about Buffett and Munger. And we’re not alone in the world. But a huge majority of people have some other crazy construct in their heads. And instead of waiting for a near cinch and loading up, they apparently ascribe to the theory that if they work a little harder or hire more business school students, they’ll come to know everything about everything all the time.
To me, that’s totally insane. The way to win is to work, work, work, work and hope to have a few insights.
How many insights do you need? Well, I’d argue: that you don’t need many in a lifetime. If you look at Berkshire Hathaway and all of its accumulated billions, the top ten insights account for most of it. And that’s with a very brilliant man—Warren’s a lot more able than I am and very disciplined—devoting his lifetime to it. I don’t mean to say that he’s only had ten insights. I’m just saying, that most of the money came from ten insights.
So you can get very remarkable investment results if you think more like a winning pari-mutuel player. Just think of it as a heavy odds against game full of craziness with an occasional mispriced something or other. And you’re probably not going to be smart enough to find thousands in a lifetime. And when you get a few, you really load up. It’s just that simple.
When Warren lectures at business schools, he says, “I could improve your ultimate financial welfare by giving you a ticket with only 20 slots in it so that you had 20 punches—representing all the investments that you got to make in a lifetime. And once you’d punched through the card, you couldn’t make any more investments at all.”
He says, “Under those rules, you’d really think carefully about what you did and you’d be forced to load up on what you’d really thought about. So you’d do so much better.”
Again, this is a concept that seems perfectly obvious to me. And to Warren, it seems perfectly obvious. But this is one of the very few business classes in the U.S. where anybody will be saying so. It just isn’t the conventional wisdom…”
I have a’holiday’ house in a coastal town that looks over a golf course and out to sea with untrammelled headlands framing the edges. And the pelicans were just wheeling, high against the bright sky overhead.
I drove down from Perth yesterday and it was a balm to arrive and to see how my garden has grown (coriander for the first time ever and the lettuces have bolted but are still lush) and this morning I walked on the beach and went to market and people said ‘how busy is it!’ due to the Easter crowds but - after Perth - I figured I was using different comparisons.
And I planted a few calendula seedlings and thought how incredibly lucky I am to be healthy and able to enjoy comfort and clean air and ocean and how maybe dogs can often be better company than humans.
And that question @jbad94 raised specific to financial wealth on ‘what to do with it besides investing’ is relevant (at a smaller scale) to me too I guess.
Taking a year to think about it is probably a good idea
Good luck to you and the fulfillment of your best dreams to you and all Edmorgrimm.
And love to you people who give time to sharing your knowledge on Hot Copper.
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Mkt cap ! $2.588B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$2.02 | $2.05 | $2.00 | $17.18M | 8.506M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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6 | 90618 | $2.01 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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$2.03 | 68770 | 4 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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5 | 81118 | 2.010 |
9 | 58182 | 2.000 |
1 | 20674 | 1.995 |
2 | 15000 | 1.980 |
1 | 2500 | 1.965 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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2.030 | 68770 | 4 |
2.040 | 124752 | 5 |
2.050 | 27565 | 1 |
2.060 | 27565 | 1 |
2.100 | 52173 | 3 |
Last trade - 16.11pm 24/06/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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