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    You mention the US election next week - I’m wondering what it is going to mean in the short term for share prices in the gold sector.

    Anyone got any views?

    My guesses as follows:

    If Trump wins, I reckon an initial uptick in the S&P as people will expect tax cuts and other policies that he thinks will boost corporates and the share market etc.

    However, that may risk reigniting inflation, which could mean interest rates holding at current levels or even going back up again later next year, which could be a negative for share prices (and potentially for gold).

    If Harris wins, the market is probably going to be relieved to avoid Trump uncertainty in the short term and will hope that interest rates continue to come down, helping share prices (and gold).

    However, her policies/spending programmes will increase the deficit, just as Trump’s tax cuts seem likely to as well.

    So in the longer run that means more federal debt and a weaker dollar, which would fuel an increasing gold price.

    Ultimately neither candidate has a plan to reduce the deficit and will need to print more dollars as the debt-to-GDP burden soars. That’s good for gold.

    Another more immediate scenario is probably more relevant to SPR’s share price: Trump loses and disputes the result, which would probably see the gold price go up but equity markets drop. Whether gold stocks hold up or are dragged down by wider market sentiment is anybody’s guess though.



    Last edited by hongkie: 29/10/24
 
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