I believe that BLY has had 3 things working for it in the past...

I believe that BLY has had 3 things working for it in the past few days:

* An extremely oversold technical (and fundamental) condition.
* A large rally from oversold conditions on most world equity markets.
* Fundamental issues from last week's comments from management that they were positive about refinancing.

Bear in mind that this share has fallen over 95% in the past 12 months, so fundamental considerations have outweighed anything technical. This is a share which only trades technically during the periods between news.

So, for example if management announced tommorrow that they had refinanced, the price might skyrocket up by tens or twenties of cents. However, if they announced failure to refinance, it might converge on about 1c. At present, management is sounding positive, so many punters are positioning themselves for a "yes".

That being said, at any given time there are only so many punters interested in a share (which, after all, is one of many thousands). Loads of them got in during the past couple of days. At some stage, a recovery from a purely technical oversold position needs something to keep on driving it up. That "something" is inevitably a fundamental announcement.

So, after that long-winded intro, my thinking is: short-term technicals are getting over-stretched; at least some (if not a lot) of the recent rally is fundamentally based on BLY refinancing; rallies which combine technically oversold and fundamental scuttlebut/hopes-and-dreams are not strong, nor are they often long.

Summary: either BLY announces something significant, or BLY falls back below 10c by the end of the week.

JMHO.