chart, page-16

Energe

Armstrong's turn is not a dud.

Firstly you can look at his "head" in late Feb 2007 which was a sharp drop but because other cycles were up it meant the major top was later.

Secondly, his dates are not always exact and you may wish to look at Sep 2000 when his last right shoulder as this is, produced a major high for SPX but was a some weeks out. His major low for Nov 2002 was 3 weeks late for the US equity market.

Thirdly, his turns are economic confidence and usually after the fact you can see what financial area is affected. In Feb 2007 the top was for the US banking/financial indices.

As I see it, we have our 62 month cycle down and Armstrong down now but 4 and 10 year cycles up till Sep and Nov. So we can rally into later this year but next year should be a shocker.

Years ending in "7" are usually the sharp peak and was, and the years ending in "9" and sometimes "0" are the last gasp rally.

40 year cycles top 1929/1969/2009 etc so we are still in topping mode IMO.

The lowest low may be in but 2012/2013 is likely to be the significant low even if not lower than 2009 and expecting a bull market now is unlikely.

I think only 1949 is the only case of a bull market in the last 100+ years that started in a "9" year.